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Experts are debating when quantum computing could compromise Bitcoin’s security, particularly its elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) and SHA-256 hashing. The debate arises from advancements in quantum computing, such as IBM’s plan to launch the IBM Quantum Starling by 2029.
Google quantum researcher Craig Gidney suggested in May 2025 a potential threat window between 2030 and 2035, dependent on advancements in error correction. Gidney’s research indicated that breaking RSA encryption might require fewer quantum resources than previously thought. He stated that a quantum computer with fewer than one million noisy qubits could factor a 2048-bit RSA integer in under a week.
Adam Back, Blockstream CEO, posited in April 2025 that quantum computers likely won’t pose a serious threat for at least two decades. However, Back acknowledged that breakthroughs could force coin migration to quantum-resistant addresses, which includes Satoshi Nakamoto’s stash.
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Naoris Protocol CEO David Carvalho, in a June 2025 opinion published by Cointelegraph, warned that quantum computers could crack Bitcoin within five years unless its cryptography is upgraded. Carvalho cited technologies like Microsoft’s Majorana chip as evidence of powerful quantum systems. Carvalho claimed about 30% of Bitcoin is stored in vulnerable addresses. He stated, “A breach would be catastrophic for holders, whose funds would be gone forever, and the ecosystem at large. It would prove that the unbreakable system can be broken. That’s why BlackRock recently acknowledged the threat of quantum to Bitcoin in its updated spot ETF filing. That’s why the time to act is now, before it’s too late.”
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Similarly, in December 2024, investor Chamath Palihapitiya cautioned that Bitcoin’s SHA-256 encryption might be broken within two to five years. Palihapitiya’s warning followed Google’s unveiling of its 105-qubit Willow chip. He estimated that 8,000 such chips could potentially break Bitcoin’s encryption and urged blockchain developers to rework hashing algorithms.
The quantum threat to Bitcoin depends on the creation of fault-tolerant quantum computers with millions of qubits.
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