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The Indian entertainment industry is experiencing a tale of two recoveries, with theatrical business showing renewed strength while streaming platforms face unprecedented subscription stagnation, according to Shailesh Kapoor, founder and CEO of audience research firm Ormax Media.
In an exclusive conversation with Variety, Kapoor paints a picture of cautious optimism for Bollywood and regional cinema, even as the broader entertainment ecosystem confronts structural challenges that could reshape how content is produced and monetized across India’s 1.4 billion population.
Kapoor notes that the Hindi-language Bollywood industry has bounced back this year with more depth at the box office compared to 2023, when four blockbusters — “Pathaan,” “Jawan,” “Animal” and “Gadar 2” — drove the market.
“This year we had ‘Chhaava,’ which was a good INR500-crore plus [$57 million] film. But apart from that, nothing else has been of that league. Instead, we’ve had a range of mid-sized films in the INR150-200 crore [$17-22 million]bracket working,” Kapoor said. “That gives the industry more stability and less dependence on one or two stars or franchises. It’s a healthier type of growth.”
The shift represents a significant evolution in audience behavior post-pandemic. Where 2024 saw prolonged stretches without major releases – leading to the unusual phenomenon of classic film re-releases filling theater schedules – this year has demonstrated that audiences will turn out for quality content across genres, not just action spectacles.
Yet, Kapoor warns against complacency. “Ideally, we should not be satisfied with the same number being maintained. Any industry should look at 8-10% growth year on year. That hasn’t happened in the last two years,” he says.
“Audiences essentially react to trailers and to other elements like music and star cast, largely [more] than what the story or the theme of the film is,” Kapoor notes, emphasizing that pricing strategy has played a crucial role. He cites the success of “Saiyaara,” noting that early discount announcements allowed most audiences to watch at ticket prices closer to INR150-200 ($1.70-2.25) rather than premium prices of INR250-300 ($2.85-3.40), even in bigger cities.
Looking ahead, Kapoor highlighted October’s Kannada-language “Kantara” prequel as a potential pan-India hit, alongside Hindi-language title “Dhurandhar” and Maddock Films’ supernatural franchise entry “Thama.” He also pointed to the star-led Telugu-language slate and early anticipation around “Ramayan,” slated for Diwali 2026.
While theatrical shows signs of recovery, the streaming sector faces a more sobering reality. “Subscriptions have stagnated,” Kapoor states bluntly. “The 100 million subscriptions that are there in India, that number is not going to go up. The paid subscription model has found some saturation. In a country like India, where the idea of paying for entertainment is still not deeply ingrained, growth will have to come from ad-supported models,” he says. He noted that platforms have already cut film acquisition costs by nearly 50%, reshaping production economics.
“Earlier platforms were willing to pay a huge premium to acquire a big theatrical film,” Kapoor explains. “Today, they’re much more cautious. They’re not acquiring that many smaller films. Bigger films also, they’re trying to negotiate harder.” The response has been a pivot toward advertising-supported models. Prime Video has already introduced ads in India, while Netflix is exploring similar options globally.
The JioCinema-Hotstar merger earlier this year resulted in the relaunch as JioStar, creating new dynamics as the platform becomes more active in content acquisition.
While Tier 2 and Tier 3 audiences are now central to streamer strategies, Kapoor says change will take time. “Of all original shows made in the last year and a half, as many as 49% are based in Mumbai or Delhi. That skews representation, because together those cities contribute barely 7% of the OTT [streaming] audience,” he says. “The real impact of Tier 2 and 3 targeting may only be visible in another year or so.”
Television, meanwhile, continues to be underestimated, Kapoor argues. “TV has a perception problem. It’s stagnant but not dying, with around 900 million viewers, far more than OTT. The bigger issue is advertisers moving away, which creates a narrative of decline,” he says.
Asked how the three major sectors — theatrical, streaming and TV — can grow in a country of 1.4 billion, Kapoor points to new formats. “Shorter, vertical content is where growth may come. In China, micro-dramas have overtaken theatrical. India is a smartphone-first market, so we have to look at formats that fit that screen,” he says.
The challenge remains significant: while India’s population suggests massive market potential, Kapoor estimates that the entire content economy has been built around just 10-15% of the population, with 25% of the country remaining “media dark” without access to television or smartphones.
Kapoor also notes Hollywood’s recovery in India this year. “Hollywood has really come back… this year, multiple films have done well. ‘F1,’ ‘Superman’ and ‘Jurassic World’ have done well. International content is also a way of engaging the market more,” he says.
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