Breathing easier will cost Dushanbe US$111 million, World Bank report finds

17:01, july 31Author: Asia-Plus

Tajikistan ranked among the four countries with the worst air quality in 2023, according to the Swiss technology firm IQAir. A recent World Bank report reveals that poor air conditions are not only costing lives and damaging crops but will also require massive investments to fix.

Environmental journalist Timur Idrisov reviewed the World Bank’s 2023 report titled “Air Quality Management in the Republic of Tajikistan.”  It found that the average concentration of PM2.5 particles in Tajikistan reached 49 μg/m³ last year—nearly 10 times higher than the World Health Organization’s recommended safe limit of 5 μg/m³.

In Dushanbe, PM2.5 concentrations averaged 46 μg/m³, making the capital the fourth most polluted city globally in terms of air quality.

These particles, PM2.5, are a mixture of tiny solid and liquid substances suspended in the air and pose serious health risks, especially as their small size (2.5 micrometers or less) allows them to penetrate deep into the lungs.

Health impact and economic consequences

The World Bank report estimates an air pollution-related mortality rate in Tajikistan of 78 deaths per 100,000 people annually.  This puts the country second in Central Asia, just behind Uzbekistan. In total, approximately 4,800 deaths are attributed to air pollution each year, with the majority resulting from heart disease (51%) and strokes (27%).  Ground-level ozone accounts for an additional 60 to 230 deaths annually.

These health effects have a significant economic impact, with air pollution-related healthcare costs estimated at 4% of Tajikistan’s GDP.  Moreover, ozone exposure is linked to reduced crop yields, while black carbon emissions accelerate glacier melt in the country’s mountainous regions.

Dushanbe’s declining air quality

The capital’s air quality has deteriorated steadily. PM2.5 levels rose from 17.8 μg/m³ in 1998 to an average of 32.7 μg/m³ by 2021, with higher concentrations recorded in the city center. In 2021, measurements ranged from 13.8 to 58.1 μg/m³, peaking in autumn and winter.

Interestingly, the U.S. Embassy’s monitoring station in Dushanbe consistently recorded readings twice as high as local hydrometeorological stations. However, experts caution that more accurate data is needed to confirm these figures.

Main sources of pollution and the cost of solutions

According to the World Bank report, the main contributors to PM2.5 emissions in Dushanbe are dust (33%), residential heating (31%), energy sector emissions (9%), waste (7%), industry (4%), and transport (3%). However, these figures were derived from satellite-based modeling and require validation through local ground measurements.

The high share attributed to residential heating raised questions. While only 5% of households used coal stoves or boilers (based on 2015 data), the report suggests that inefficient stoves and fuels could be responsible for significant emissions. Similarly, the claim that transport contributes only 3% is disputed, as another 2020 study placed that figure at 13%, noting a sharp increase in fuel consumption driven by transportation since 2010.

The city’s coal-powered thermal power plant is cited as a major polluter. Yet, comprehensive air quality monitoring remains lacking.

Monitoring challenges and new initiatives

Tajikistan currently lacks a national air quality monitoring system. Data exists only for 2019–2021, collected by one automated station at the national weather agency, five manually operated stations in Dushanbe, and a station at the U.S. Embassy—far from sufficient for full-scale analysis.

There’s also no national emissions registry. However, efforts are underway to improve the situation, including international support for new monitoring stations, personnel training, and regulatory development.

US$111 million for cleaner air

To meaningfully reduce pollution in Dushanbe, the World Bank estimates that $111 million is needed. This investment could lower PM2.5 levels by 13% and prevent 70–100 premature deaths annually—mostly by upgrading residential heating systems.

The World Bank also plans to assist Tajikistan in drafting a comprehensive air quality management roadmap, encompassing legal reform, institutional planning, and technical capacity-building at both national and local levels.

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