Original Coverage & Source Attribution: www.nation.com.pk
China’s proposed framework for managing exports of advanced solar manufacturing technologies signals a new phase in the global renewable energy industry, highlighting the growing importance of technological innovation and international industrial cooperation while maintaining the country’s role as a major supplier of solar products.
China’s Ministry of Commerce published the proposal in October as part of a wider revision of its technology export list, which also covers artificial intelligence and biotechnology. The proposal covers 12 advanced solar manufacturing technologies, while exports of finished solar panels remain unaffected.
Under the proposed framework, exports of technologies used to manufacture perovskite and tandem solar cells, certain thin wafers and large-scale fluidised-bed polysilicon would be prohibited.
Mainstream cell technologies, including TOPCon, heterojunction (HJT) and XBC, would face restrictions rather than outright bans.
The ministry cited the growing use of advanced solar technologies in sensitive sectors, such as aerospace and defence, as the primary reason for stricter oversight. Public consultation will continue until November 15, after which the final rules are expected to take shape. Until the list is formally updated, exporters must register certain overseas technology transfers.
The proposed measures distinguish between advanced manufacturing know-how and finished solar products, allowing China to strengthen the management of specialised technologies while continuing to supply international markets.
China accounts for more than 80% of global solar manufacturing capacity at every stage of production, while its capacity can meet nearly twice global demand, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).
The country’s manufacturing strength has helped expand global access to solar technology. UK-based energy think tank Ember reported that China’s solar exports reached a record 68 gigawatts in March, doubling from the previous month as high energy prices linked to the Iran conflict encouraged countries to accelerate solar adoption.
Export trends have since moderated. According to customs data cited by Reuters, China’s solar equipment exports declined 6.4% year-on-year in September and were down 9.5% during the year to date, following the removal of an export tax rebate on April 1.
The structure of international solar trade has also evolved. Exports of solar cells and wafers overtook those of finished panels in October 2025 as more countries developed domestic module assembly operations using imported components.
Muhammad Zaid Masood Khan, a PhD researcher at the National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST) and visiting researcher at the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC), told Wealth Pakistan that China’s competitive advantage extended beyond finished panels to the sophisticated manufacturing knowledge required to produce them.
He explained that solar deployment in countries such as Pakistan would remain largely unaffected because the proposed measures do not cover finished panels. Module assembly would also face limited direct impact.
However, Khan said countries seeking to establish advanced manufacturing facilities would need to consider technology licensing requirements, particularly for production processes involving solar cells, wafers and polysilicon.
He noted that manufacturers could face additional licensing procedures for advanced technologies such as TOPCon or consider established alternatives such as PERC. For Pakistan, he identified government-to-government cooperation and joint ventures under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as potential avenues for developing domestic solar manufacturing capabilities.
Tim Buckley, Director of Climate Energy Finance, a public-interest think tank, said the immediate commercial impact of the proposed measures was likely to be limited because some technologies covered by the proposal, including perovskite cells, were not yet ready for widespread commercial manufacturing.
He said solar module prices had remained below production costs for at least 18 months, while global manufacturing overcapacity meant additional module factories might not be commercially necessary for another two to three years.
“For countries like Australia and Pakistan, and most of Africa, it will be immaterial,” he said.
For Pakistan and other import-reliant economies, the distinction between finished solar products and manufacturing technologies remains important. Continued access to Chinese solar panels can support renewable energy expansion, while domestic manufacturing ambitions may require more structured technology partnerships.
China’s extensive manufacturing capacity and technological expertise provide opportunities for cooperation in module assembly, equipment supply, technical training and industrial development, subject to applicable technology-transfer requirements.
The proposed framework highlights the increasing strategic value of advanced solar manufacturing knowledge as renewable energy industries expand worldwide.
As public consultation continues until November 15, the final rules will help determine how advanced technology licensing develops alongside international solar trade and industrial cooperation.
