Critical food crops are threatened by rising temperatures globally

A new study warns that if global warming surpasses 1.5°C, vast regions could lose critical crop diversity, heightening the risk to worldwide food security. 

Researchers predict that about one-third of global food production may be in jeopardy due to higher temperatures, underscoring how climate change is expected to reshape agriculture, especially in vulnerable low-latitude countries.

Loss of crop diversity

Scientists at Aalto University conducted the research, published in Nature Food, by analyzing how changes in temperature, rainfall patterns, and overall aridity will influence the growth of 30 key food crops around the globe. 

The results show that low-latitude areas – including large portions of the tropics – stand to suffer the most. As warming increases, these regions would see far more land becoming unsuitable for agriculture, as well as a sharp drop in the variety of crops that can be grown.

“The loss of diversity means that the range of food crops available for cultivation could decrease significantly in certain areas. That would reduce food security and make it more difficult to get adequate calories and protein,” said Sara Heikonen, the doctoral researcher who led the study.

Climate change and food crops

Up to half of the world’s current food crop production may be impacted by these shifting conditions. Major staples – rice, maize, wheat, potato, and soybean – are likely to face severe reductions in suitable cropland, heightening challenges for societies that depend on them for daily nutrition. 

According to Heikonen, many other crops, like “tropical root crops such as yam, which are key to food security in low-income regions, as well as cereals and pulses are particularly vulnerable.

In sub-Saharan Africa, the region which would be impacted most, almost three quarters of current production is at risk if global warming exceeds 3°C.”

Warming brings winners and losers

The study reveals a stark contrast between low-latitude and mid- to high-latitude regions. While countries nearer the equator face severe crop losses and falling diversity, those in cooler climates could retain their overall production levels.

Scientists also project that mid- and high-latitude areas may be able to cultivate a broader range of crops in a warming world.

“For example, the cultivation of temperate fruits, such as pears, could become more common in more northerly regions,” Heikonen said.

Yet, the study’s senior author Matti Kummu notes that a favorable shift in climate does not guarantee greater yields.

“We showed that there’s climatic potential but, for example, warming might bring new pests and extreme weather events, which our model doesn’t include. So the situation isn’t really that black and white,” Kummu said.

Challenges in low-latitude regions

Countries already vulnerable to food insecurity, especially in Africa, face mounting difficulties as rising temperatures coincide with other social and economic pressures. Still, Kummu argues there is room for adaptation.

“In many low latitude areas, especially in Africa, the yields are small compared to similar areas elsewhere in the world. They could get higher yields with access to fertilisers and irrigation as well as reducing food losses through the production and storage chain,” he said. 

“However, ongoing global warming will add a lot of uncertainty to these estimates and probably even more actions are needed, such as crop selection and novel breeding. But I always say that the modelling and analysis is the easy part – understanding how to make the changes happen is the hardest part.”

Policy-makers in low-latitude countries, the report suggests, must look for ways to close gaps in agricultural infrastructure while simultaneously bracing for more hostile growing conditions. 

Without such efforts, local communities already at risk for food shortages may struggle even more in the years ahead.

Securing the world’s food crops

For mid- and high-latitude regions, farmers and legislators will have to remain flexible. Even if warming opens the door to new crops, changes in global demand and market forces could further reshape what people choose to cultivate. 

Building resilience likely involves experimenting with different crop varieties, adjusting planting seasons, and investing in infrastructure to cope with potential extreme weather and pests.

“If we want to secure our food system in the future, we need to both mitigate climate change and adapt to its effects,” Heikonen said. “Even if the biggest changes are in equatorial regions, we will all feel the effects through the globalized food system. We need to act together to address these problems.”

This interconnection means that climate-driven crop failures in one part of the world could ripple across supply chains, affecting food prices and availability everywhere.

The study emphasizes that mitigating climate change is essential, but so too is planning for a hotter and more unpredictable planet. 

By adjusting farming practices, investing in research, and coordinating policy efforts, countries can better prepare to feed a growing population in an era of environmental upheaval.

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