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Expert warns poor urban planning increases earthquake risk in Istanbul
In a sprawling metropolis like Istanbul, the priority after a potential earthquake should be the strength and safety of buildings rather than relying on designated gathering areas, experts stress.
According to professor Mikdat Kadıoğlu, director of the Disaster Management Institute at Istanbul Technical University (ITÜ), the sheer size of Istanbul makes it impossible to provide sufficient gathering spaces, and residents naturally want to stay near their homes after a quake.
“It is impossible to have enough gathering spaces in a large city,” Kadıoğlu said during an “Earthquake Preparedness and Basic Disaster Awareness” event organized by Esenler Municipality at the July 15 National Garden.
“People want to gather close to where they live. That’s why living in earthquake-resistant buildings is essential, so that we don’t need to depend on gathering areas. Confidence in the structural integrity of our buildings is crucial when an earthquake strikes.”
Highlighting specific seismic risks, Kadıoğlu pointed out the vulnerability of coastal regions in Istanbul, where poor soil conditions elevate earthquake hazards. The coastal stretch from Zeytinburnu to Avcılar and Beylikdüzü is at greater risk on the European side due to weak soil.
Similarly, parts of the Asian side, particularly areas adjacent to the railway line built on reclaimed land, face increased seismic threats.
“These risk zones have been known for years,” Kadıoğlu said. “Soil quality and land reclamation significantly affect how an earthquake impacts these areas.”
Earthquakes during the day often lead to more serious problems than at night. Families typically gather under one roof at night, facilitating easier communication and coordination.
In contrast, daytime quakes find people scattered at work, school, or outdoors, complicating rescue and information-sharing efforts.
“Nighttime earthquakes cause fewer communication problems because families are together,” Kadıoğlu explained.
“Daytime earthquakes can lead to confusion and delays in safety responses. It’s critical for people to understand what to do inside their homes during a quake. Instead of immediately rushing to their phones or cars, individuals should use social media and alternative communication channels, as traditional phone lines may be overloaded and traffic will create obstacles,” he added.
Criticizing the superficial nature of current emergency drills, Kadıoğlu called for more realistic, structured preparedness training. He suggested pairing classes in schools to establish buddy systems, where students take shelter under desks with their teachers during shaking and wait for the all-clear before evacuating.
“Drills shouldn’t be mere performances,” he said. “Proper drills involve a step-by-step system: after the shaking stops, one person checks escape routes, paired teachers verify the safety of their classes and injured students receive immediate attention while others proceed to safe gathering points. This approach ensures a coordinated and efficient evacuation, yet, unfortunately, such systems are not widespread in Türkiye.”
Kadıoğlu emphasized that government-supported urban renewal projects provide critical opportunities for improving building safety, but many families fail to take advantage due to disagreements or short-term perspectives.
“The ‘Half from Us’ campaign is currently one of the best initiatives encouraging families to renew unsafe buildings,” he noted. “We need to overcome misinformation and take these opportunities seriously.”
He warned against several common misunderstandings, such as running immediately during a quake or relying too heavily on the idea of a ‘quake bag.’ While first aid kits are important, panicking and fleeing can increase risk.
“It’s dangerous to assume safety just because a contractor lives in a building or because it’s built on rock,” Kadıoğlu said. “Thinking ‘it won’t happen to me’ is a risky mindset. Learning how to behave during an earthquake is the first step. When people understand what to do, an earthquake can be less of a crisis and more like a brief interruption in daily life.”
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