Food inflation to plunge 141 million Nigerians into poverty by 2026: World Bank

The World Bank has projected that “inflationary pressure, particularly food prices,” will plunge about 141 million Nigerians into poverty by 2026.

The international organisation made this projection in its Nigeria Development Update report for October 2025, published on Wednesday.

Nigeria’s economy “growth is still timid,” the World Bank said, adding, “Remaining inflationary pressure, particularly from food prices, is expected to further push poverty up.”

It added, “The poverty rate is projected to reach 62 per cent in 2026, 141 million poor Nigerians, before stabilising and slightly reducing to 61 per cent in 2027.”

This projection suggests two million people will plunge into poverty in addition to the 139 million Nigerians already living in poverty.

The World Bank said many households continue to face hardship, with poverty and food insecurity remaining high.

Food inflation remains a major concern: poor households—who spend up to 70 per cent of their income on food—have seen the cost of a basic food basket rise fivefold between 2019 and 2024, it said.

With inflation at 24 per cent, down from 33 per cent after rebasing the economy, and pump prices between N900 and N890, Nigerians have faced an unprecedented cost-of-living crisis since President Bola Tinubu assumed office and removed the fuel subsidy in 2023.

However, the Tinubu-led government rejected the World Bank’s economic assessment captured in the Nigerian Development Update.

“Nigeria rejects exaggerated statistical interpretations detached from local realities,” Sunday Dare, one of the spokespersons for the president, said in a statement on Thursday.

Dismissing the staggering figure of Nigerians living in poverty, Mr Dare argued that “There must be caution against interpreting the World Bank’s number as a literal, real-time headcount.”

He added, “The government therefore regards the figure as a modelled global estimate, not an empirical representation of conditions in 2025. What truly matters is the trajectory—and Nigeria’s is now one of recovery and inclusive reform.”

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