Forecast: Music streaming market to surpass 1bn subs by 2027

Buoyed by surging consumer appetites, the global music market is charting a course towards new growth. Futuresource Consulting forecasts that music streaming subscriptions will exceed 1 billion by the end of 2027, climbing to 1.2 billion by 2029. Meanwhile, physical media continues to carve out a growing niche in this increasingly digital market.

“Despite economic uncertainties, music streaming has become a must-have service for many consumers,” says James Duvall, Principal Analyst, Futuresource Consulting. “It’s now seen as a commodity rather than a luxury, much like broadband or a mobile subscription. And as streaming providers adapt rapidly and adjust to local needs, customising content and refining pricing strategies to stay ahead, this new flexibility is driving the global push past the billion-subscriber barrier.”

Emerging markets drive growth, developed regions still dominate

Futuresource expects Latin America and Asia Pacific to be the main engines of future growth, with projected CAGRs out to 2029 of 14 per cent and 10 per cent respectively. Yet, despite this momentum, the majority of consumer activity will take place in North America and Western Europe, which together accounted for 66 per cent of music spending in 2024, dipping only slightly to 62 per cent by 2029.

Spotify still in control, YouTube Music expanding reach

Spotify continues to dominate the global streaming landscape, and amassed 263 million paying subscribers by the end of 2024, a figure that swells to 688 million when free streaming users are also included. Meanwhile, YouTube Music has leapfrogged Amazon Music Unlimited to become the third largest streaming service worldwide, behind Apple Music, with a 26 per cent subscriber growth rate in 2024 alone.

Vinyl’s retro revolution is in full force

Physical music formats aren’t entirely out of the picture. Vinyl remains a bright spot, with 8 per cent growth in consumer spend in 2024, compared to the broader packaged media market’s 3 per cent rise. Futuresource notes that while growth is stabilising in many smaller markets, a dedicated fan base continues to drive demand for vinyl’s tangible, high-fidelity experience.

However, US tariffs on imported materials, such as Japanese-sourced lacquers, could push up vinyl prices in the second half of 2025 and into 2026. Despite this, Futuresource expects passionate fans to keep expanding their vinyl collections, maintaining demand momentum.

Sound profits and solid future growth

Overall, global consumer spend on recorded music reached $43.4 billion (€37.8bn) in 2024 and is projected to hit $59.4 billion by 2029. North America alone accounted for 35 per cent of global streaming spend in 2024, with 56 per cent of vinyl consumer spend concentrated in the region.

“Music remains a universal passion, and streaming’s trajectory towards a billion subscriptions is a clear indicator of that. For providers, it’s no longer just about scale; it’s about delivering local experiences, premium tiers and the right balance of global and niche content to keep listeners engaged and spending. Our latest report unpacks these dynamics in detail, with vital insights for any stakeholder operating across this fast-moving ecosystem,” concluded Duvall.

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