Global beverage prices surge on cocoa and coffee declines – World Bank  | Food Business Middle East & Africa

GLOBAL – The World Bank has reported a decline in its beverage price index in early April 2025, following a sharp surge of 16 percent in the first quarter of the year.  

The index now stands at a level 65 percent higher than the same period last year, reflecting major price gains in key beverage commodities, especially coffee and cocoa, due to persistent production shortfalls. 

According to the latest Commodity Markets Outlook, the World Bank expects the beverage price index to increase by nearly 20 percent in 2025 on a year-on-year basis. A correction of approximately 11 percent is projected in 2026 as supply conditions begin to stabilize. 

Coffee prices, which reached record nominal levels earlier in the year, slightly eased in early April. Arabica coffee peaked at US$9/kg between February and March, while Robusta approached US$6/kg.  

In the first quarter of 2025, Arabica prices rose by 26 percent quarter-on-quarter—almost doubling from the same period in 2024—while Robusta saw a 12 percent quarterly rise, equating to a 67 percent year-on-year increase. 

Despite a projected rise in global coffee production from 170 million bags in 2023-24 to 173 million bags in 2024-25, output remains below 2020-21 levels. The report attributes the continued price pressure to lingering supply disruptions caused by the 2021-22 weather events and sustained global demand growth. 

Arabica prices are forecast to increase by over 50 percent in 2025, assuming current price levels hold, before declining by 15 percent in 2026 as production in Colombia improves. 

Robusta prices are expected to climb by nearly 25 percent this year before falling by 9 percent next year. 

Cocoa prices, which climbed to nearly US$11/kg in January, softened slightly in March and early April. However, prices remained 15 percent higher quarter-on-quarter in 2025Q1 and nearly 70 percent above year-ago levels. The World Bank attributes the increase to weather-related disruptions in West Africa and strong seasonal demand. 

Global cocoa output fell by 12 percent to 4.3 million metric tons in the 2023-24 season, from 4.9 million metric tons in 2022-23, with declines largely from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana—countries that account for almost 60 percent of global production.  

However, global cocoa output is expected to rebound by over 11 percent in 2024-25, ending in September 2025, due to improved weather. Production in Côte d’Ivoire is forecast to rise by 5 percent, while Ghana’s output is expected to jump by 34 percent. 

Cocoa prices are projected to rise by 9 percent in 2025 before falling by 13 percent in 2026 as additional supplies enter the market. Nonetheless, the potential return of adverse weather in key producing regions remains a significant risk. 

Meanwhile, tea prices declined by 11 percent in the first quarter of 2025, driven by a 38 percent seasonal drop at the Kolkata auction. Prices in Colombo and Mombasa held steady due to consistent supply from Sri Lanka.  

While challenges persist in East Africa, especially in Tanzania and Uganda, overall global tea supply remains stable. Tea prices are expected to fall by 18 percent this year, followed by a 12 percent rebound in 2026. 

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