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Global Demand For Meat And Dairy Set To Rise, But Climate And Nutrition Gaps Remain
Wednesday, 16 July 2025, 8:27 am
Press Release: UN News
By Vibhu Mishra
15 July
2025
However, persistent nutritional gaps and
mounting environmental pressures reveal a complex path
ahead, according to a new study by the UN Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO) and
the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD) – an influential international policy
forum.
The Agricultural
Outlook 2025-2034, released on Tuesday, projects a
six per cent increase in global per capita consumption of
animal-source foods by 2034 – beef, pork, poultry, fish,
dairy and other animal products.
The trend is most
pronounced in lower middle-income countries, where intake is
expected to rise by 24 per cent, far outpacing the global
average.
“These projections point to better
nutrition for many people in developing
countries,” said
Qu Dongyu, Director-General of the
FAO.
Increased incomes, better diets – but
not for all
The surge in consumption
in middle-income economies is attributed largely to rising
disposable incomes, changing dietary preferences and
urbanisation. In these countries, daily per capita
intake of animal-sourced foods is projected to reach 364
kilocalories, surpassing the 300 kcal benchmark.
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At
the same time, consumption in low-income countries
will remain low – reaching just 143 kcal per day, less
than half the amount deemed necessary for a healthy
diet – highlighting stark inequalities in access
to nutrient-rich diets and the challenges ahead to ensure
everyone is food secure.
Mr. Qu urged greater efforts
to ensure people in the lowest-income countries also benefit
from improved nutrition and food
security.
Production expanding but emissions
rising
To meet rising demand, global
agricultural and fish production is projected to increase by
14 per cent over the next decade, largely driven by
productivity gains in middle-income nations.
Output of
meat, dairy and eggs is expected to grow by 17 per cent,
while total livestock inventories are projected to expand by
seven per cent.
However, these gains come at
an environmental cost: direct greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions from agriculture are set to rise by six per cent
by 2034, despite improvements in emissions
intensity.
As production becomes more efficient, the
emissions generated per unit of output will decline, but the
overall footprint will still grow unless additional measures
are taken.
Other key
findings
- Cereal yields to grow 0.9 per
cent annually, with harvested area expanding just 0.14 per
cent per year – half the pace of the last
decade - By 2034, 40 per cent of cereals will go
directly to human consumption, 33 per cent to animal feed,
and the rest to biofuels and industry - Biofuel demand
set to rise 0.9 per cent annually, led by Brazil, India and
Indonesia - Sub-Saharan Africa’s beef herd projected
to grow 15 per cent, though productivity remains just
one-tenth of North America’s - India and Southeast
Asia will drive 39 per cent of global consumption growth by
2034; China’s share falling to 13 per cent from 32 per
cent - High-income countries to see drop in per capita
fats and sweeteners intake due to health trends and policy
shifts
A win-win: More nourishment,
fewer emissions
The report outlines a
scenario in which nourishment improves for all, and
agricultural emissions are reduced by as much as seven per
cent below current levels by 2034.
Achieving
this dual outcome would require major investments to improve
productivity, alongside widespread adoption of existing
low-emission technologies such as precision farming,
improved livestock feed and prioritising nutritional
production.
Future progress will depend on a blend of
policy coordination, technological innovation and targeted
investments – especially in countries where the gap
between demand and nutritional value is
stark.
“We have the tools to end hunger and
boost global food security,” said
Mathias Cormann, Secretary-General of the
OECD.
“Well-coordinated policies are needed to keep
global food markets open, while fostering long-term
productivity improvements and sustainability in the
agriculture sector.”
Pivotal role for global
trade
The Outlook also reiterates the
importance of trade, given that 22 per cent of all calories
eaten will have crossed international borders by
2034.
“International trade will remain
indispensable to the global agri-food sector,”
the report stressed.
“Multilateral
cooperation and a rules-based agricultural trade are
essential to facilitating these trade flows,
balancing food deficits and surpluses across countries,
stabilising prices and enhancing food security, nutrition
and environmental
sustainability.”
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