Goldman Sachs Predicts Potential Record-Breaking M&A in 2026

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(Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Inc. expects a major ramp up in dealmaking toward the end of the year, with a chance that 2026 proves a record year for M&A.

The bank predicts deal flow of around $3.1 trillion globally this year, rising up to $3.9 trillion the next, according to Tim Ingrassia, Goldman’s co-chairman of global mergers and acquisitions. That would surpass $3.6 trillion of M&A in 2021, he added, citing numbers from research firm Dealogic. The data excludes deals by special purpose acquisition companies.

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“If the current momentum continues, there is a possibility that 2026 will represent an all-time high in M&A activity,” he said, speaking at the bank’s 15th Annual EMEA Credit and Leveraged Finance Conference in London.

M&A activity has built up over the summer following a disappointing start to the year, when volatility surrounding US trade tariffs sapped enthusiasm for dealmaking. The number of takeovers is still roughly flat compared with last year amid a few marquee deals, including Union Pacific Corp.’s agreement to acquire railroad operator Norfolk Southern Corp. for more than $80 billion including debt.

Ingrassia’s bullishness echoes remarks made earlier in the day by Christina Minnis, Goldman’s global head of credit finance, in an interview with Bloomberg TV.

“We’ve been talking for years about the return of M&A, but what we’ve seen in terms of corporate boardrooms and sponsor willingness to transact is really picking up,” she said “We’re quite optimistic about the end of 2025 and going into 2026.”

WATCH: “What we see in terms of corporate boardrooms and sponsor willingness to transact is really picking up,” Goldman Sachs’s Christina Minnis says.Source: Bloomberg

Some companies are taking advantage of “great credit markets” and going after acquisitions that have been potentially off the table in the past, Minnis said. Meanwhile some sponsor portfolio companies are returning to dealmaking after a period of spending more time on dividend recaps, she added.

AI Boom

Minnis said that the rush to build the infrastructure that supports AI is set to be a major source of activity. An analysis by Bloomberg News last year estimated that at least $1 trillion will be spent on data centers, electricity suppliers and communications networks.

“What is going on in infrastructure is really incredible, which is going to drive significant financing, driven by what’s going on in AI, computing and data centers,” she said. “There’s a significant amount of capital raising that’s going to be required over the next decade.”

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