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Everyone says artificial intelligence will change the way we work. But on Wall Street, where investment banking jobs range from high-touch dealmaking to split-second trading, what will that actually look like? And who’s most at risk?
Each role in financial services will be impacted differently as AI spreads through the industry, a process that’s well underway. JPMorgan and Citi have rolled out in-depth AI strategies; Goldman Sachs has made its AI chatbot sidekick available firmwide.
Business Insider spoke to Sumeet Chabria, a former Bank of America executive turned founder of consultancy ThoughtLinks, whose firm recently produced a report forecasting precisely which tasks in the investment banking world will be overtaken by AI, and what humans will be doing.
Sumeet Chabria, founder and CEO of ThoughtLinks.
Courtesy of Sumeet Chabria/ThoughtLinks
He offered detailed case studies covering four specific areas: M&A, sales and trading, equity underwriting, and debt underwriting — for each one, breaking down the roles AI will likely to overtake, and where humans will remain indispensable.
Chabria’s research predicts that AI could transform as much as 33% of IB workflows by 2030, meaning it will handle everything from data analysis and document drafting to simulating market scenarios. Here’s a look at how the dynamic between people and the machines will play out for four specific Wall Street career tracks by 2030.
Mergers & Acquisitions
What bankers will be doing:
M&A bankers will review potential risks, provide important context, and take the lead on final due diligence — especially in complex areas like tax, reputation, and integration planning, where human judgment is essential. They’ll continue shaping deal strategy, advising clients, and leading negotiations.
What AI will be doing:
- AI agents will work around the clock scanning public/private data, news, and CRM platforms to identify strategic targets.
- AI will flag operational, market, and geopolitical risks, delivering summarized insights to deal teams.
Forecast change by 2030: 30%
Equity Underwriting
What bankers will be doing:
Lead ECM bankers will still oversee bookbuilding in real time, step in to adjust investor allocations when needed, and handle negotiations with key investors. They will also remain in charge of taking deals live, how a company’s story is told, and getting sign-off from company leadership. Even with advanced models, understanding investor mood and managing tricky company situations will require human judgment and experience.
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What AI will be doing:
- During live deals, AI tools will track investor orders, test different ways to allocate shares, and adjust pricing on the fly. Before the launch, they will run simulations based on market trends and how investors are likely to respond.
Forecast change by 2030: 32%
Debt Underwriting
What bankers will be doing:
DCM teams will keep evaluating the best time to issue debt based on the company’s goals and their relationships with investors. While AI may draft documents, bankers — working together with legal counsel — must ensure they meet legal standards, align with rating agencies, and comply with regulations. Their judgment will be crucial in shaping language and guiding the market narrative.
What AI will be doing:
- Agents will monitor rate curves, peer issuance, and investor trends to recommend deal timing and structure.
- Generative AI will draft offering documents, term sheets, and covenants using internal data and compliance inputs.
Forecast change by 2030: 34%
Sales & Trading
What bankers will be doing:
Traders will use AI recommendations to make trades on an even greater scale than they are doing now, intervening more heavily in disorderly conditions. They’ll continue to manage inventory, client objectives, and risk appetite. Human oversight will be crucial in calibrating algorithmic boundaries, ensuring compliance, and preserving client trust in high-stakes environments.
What AI will be doing:
- AI systems will provide real-time execution recommendations based on liquidity, venue analysis, and timing.
- In volatile markets, quote engines will adjust spreads dynamically within set risk bands.
Forecast change by 2030: 32%
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