IMF, World Bank Note Slowing Growth In Armenia

In its latest quarterly report on economic developments in Europe and Central Asia, the bank said that the Armenian economy is likely to grow by 4 percent as “trade within the region is starting to stabilize.” The IMF forecast a slightly higher growth rate, 4.5 percent, in a statement issued last week. It likewise noted that “trade and services normalize” in the country.

The forecasts are consistent with a 4.1 percent rate of “economic activity” recorded by the Armenian government’s Statistical Committee in the first quarter of 2025. The macroeconomic indicator does not take account of agriculture and tends to be higher than the GDP growth rate.

“The economic slowdown was predictable given the given the impact of the Russian factor and, in particular, the re-export of Russian gold [to the United Arab Emirates] from November 2023 through May 2024,” Suren Parsian, a Yerevan-based economist told RFE/RL’s Armenian Service on Monday.

Government data suggests that a drastic decline in those re-exports, worth billions of dollars, is the reason why Armenia’s foreign trade shrunk by half in January-March 2025.

Armenian entrepreneurs also took advantage of the Western sanctions by re-exporting many goods to Russia following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This was the main driving force behind Armenia’s robust growth in 2022 and 2023.

Growth moderated to 5.9 percent in 2024. The government has forecast a 5.1 percent rate for this year.

The World Bank pointed out that despite the robust economic activity the country’s unemployment rate rose from 12.4 percent in 2023 to almost 14 percent in 2024. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian’s government had pledged to cut it to below 10 percent by 2026.

_{Images are for reference only.Images and contents gathered automatic from google or 3rd party sources.All rights on the images and contents are with their legal original owners.}