India CPI inflation eases to 1.55% in July, below estimates of 1.40% – lowest since June 2017

India’s retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), dropped sharply to 1.55% in July 2025, down from 2.10% in June and below market expectations of 1.40%. This marks the lowest level in over five years, primarily driven by a significant decline in food inflation.

Year-on-year inflation rate based on All India Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of July 2025 over July 2024 is 1.55% (Provisional). There is a decline of 55 basis points in headline inflation of July 2025 in comparison to June 2025. It is the lowest year-on-year inflation rate after June 2017.

According to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), the food and beverages index recorded a fall of 0.3% YoY in July, compared to a 1.4% increase in June. Prices of vegetables, edible oils, and pulses saw notable declines, helping ease the overall inflation pressure. The housing index rose 3.8%, while fuel and light costs increased 1.9%. Core inflation (excluding food and fuel) remained stable at 3.9%.

On a month-on-month basis, CPI slipped 0.4%, marking the second consecutive monthly decline. Analysts attribute this to ample supply in food markets following good harvests and effective supply-side interventions.

The latest inflation print keeps price growth well below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) medium-term target of 4%. With inflation cooling sharply, economists believe the RBI may have more room to cut rates in upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meetings to support growth. However, the central bank is likely to remain cautious, watching for any rebound in food prices due to weather-related disruptions.

The rural inflation rate stood at 1.37%, while urban inflation was slightly higher at 1.78%, reflecting stronger price pressures in cities compared to rural areas.

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