India’s E-Retail Market to Triple by 2030, Reaching $190 Billion: Report

New Delhi, Mar 29 (KNN) India’s e-retail market is poised for significant growth, with projections indicating a rise to USD 170–USD 190 billion in gross merchandise value (GMV) by 2030, according to a report by Bain & Company and Flipkart. 

This expansion is attributed to an increasing shopper base and emerging business models.

Currently, India boasts the world’s second-largest e-retail shopper base, with over 270 million online consumers in 2024. The market, presently valued at USD 60 billion, has experienced a slowdown in growth—falling from over 20 per cent in previous years to 10–12 per cent in 2024. This deceleration is linked to macroeconomic challenges affecting discretionary spending.

Despite this, the sector is expected to accelerate, surpassing 18 per cent annual growth by 2030 as India’s per capita GDP reaches USD 3,500–USD 4,000, a key inflection point for e-commerce expansion.

Categories such as grocery, lifestyle, and general merchandise are set to drive nearly 70 per cent of the incremental e-retail growth. 

Quick commerce (Q-commerce), already constituting 10 per cent of overall e-retail GMV and 70–75 per cent of e-grocery GMV, is projected to grow at over 40 per cent annually until 2030.

The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior, with a notable rise in trend-first commerce, particularly in fashion, which is expected to exceed 50 per cent online penetration by 2028. 

Hyper-value commerce, targeting lower-middle-income shoppers, has also grown significantly, with its share of e-retail GMV increasing from 5 per cent in 2021 to 12–15 per cent in 2024.

Furthermore, small cities are driving growth, with 60 per cent of new online customers and 45 per cent of orders emerging from Tier-III and smaller cities since 2020.

As digital payments and social commerce rise, India’s e-retail market continues its rapid transformation, offering vast opportunities for brands and retailers.

(KNN Bureau)

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