India’s GDP growth may fall to four-year low of 6.4% in 2024-’25, say official estimates

India’s gross domestic product growth is projected to sharply fall to a four-year low of 6.4% in the financial year 2024-’25, from 8.2% in 2023-’24, according to the first advance estimates released by the National Statistics Office on Tuesday.

The projection released by the Ministry of Statists and Programme Implementation is slightly below the Reserve Bank of India’s projection of a growth rate of 6.6%.

The decline in GDP growth could be due to a possible decline in manufacturing and investment growth, MoneyControl reported.

Growth in the manufacturing sector may drop to 5.3% from 9.9% last year. Similarly, investment growth is predicted to decline to 6.4%, down from 9%.

However, the agriculture sector is projected to grow by 3.8%, up from 1.4%.

The advance estimates give a broad picture of how the country’s economy may perform in the upcoming year, and help the finance ministry decide on budgetary allocations.

The figures on Tuesday came over a month after data showed that the real gross domestic product growth rate slumped to an 18-month low of 5.4% in the July-September quarter, despite the 6.7% increase in the first quarter.

The nominal gross domestic product in the ongoing financial year is projected to grow at 9.7%, slightly higher than the figure of 9.6% recorded in the financial year 2023-’24.

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