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Clouds over vast swathes of North India have caused abrupt dips in solar power production, raising worries about the stability of the power grid that serves millions of Indians.
The national grid operator asked all electricity companies in February to be on alert mode and supply power to preserve the grid’s stability, two people aware of the matter said.
“There have been instances of a dip in power generation, which puts the grid under strain. In mid-February, it went below the requisite range and hit 49.5 Hz, raising a concern. A balance needs to be made in terms of renewable energy and other sources power, mostly coal,” one of the people mentioned above said on the condition of anonymity.
Queries sent to the Grid Controller of India and the Union power ministry remained unanswered till press time.
Grid frequency is a key indicator of the network’s stability, and must remain within a tight band of 49.9-50.2 Hz to ensure that the grid functions smoothly. Sudden changes in power production or demand can disturb the frequency and potentially destabilize the grid, and in extreme cases, spark outages across vast areas. Grid frequency fell below safe levels several times in February, the two people said.
Infirm sources
Solar and wind power are considered infirm sources of power since production depends on unpredictable sunshine and wind. When production from such sources fall, coal- and gas-based power plants amp up supply to maintain frequency and stabilize the grid.
Clouds and fog common in winters cut off sunshine and curb solar power generation, especially in northern states like Rajasthan which have large solar capacity. When accurate weather forecasts are available early, authorities can crank up production from other sources, the second person added.
“There may be instances when due to some reason, the generation may surge, and it may surpass the upper limit of 50.05 Hz. Then, efforts need to be made to bring the frequency levels back to the required range. Similarly, in winters, there would be an impact on solar generation due to clouds and fog. The requirement here is for better and accurate forecast of these weather phenomena,” the second person said.
“Grid India is working with several stakeholders to improve the weather forecast required for renewable power generation, including IIT Bombay, India Meteorological Department (IMD) and National Centre for Research Methodologies for better forecast technologies,” the second person said.
Some of northern India’s top solar power producers include ReNew, Adani Green Energy Ltd, Avaada Group and Hero Future Energies. Queries sent to these companies remained unanswered.
“Although generation in winters usually sees a decline in states like Rajasthan in the northern region, overall solar generation last month was by and large as per expectations,” an executive with a major solar power producer said on the condition of anonymity. “However, there have been instances of sudden dip due to cloud cover and fog in the northern states, which may be concerning for grid stability. In such instances, there is nothing much a solar power generator can do. But, in instances where generation increases suddenly, and frequency levels go above the requisite range, power generators can reduce supplies through power plant controllers (PPC),” the executive added.
Shadow over solar power
In the past few years, fog and cloud cover in northern India have cast a shadow over solar power, which now accounts for over 20% of India’s overall installed power generation capacity. In February last year, Mint reported that amid dense fog across north India in the winter season, solar power generation in the country witnessed an over 3% dip in January 2024.
According to the 2024 annual irradiation report by Solargis, an online platform for solar design, data analytics, and forecasting software, the Indian subcontinent has seen a steady decline in sunshine below the Long-Term Average (LTA) in recent years. These fluctuations can adversely affect the efficiency of solar power projects.
Fluctuations in sunshine creates oscillations in frequency, which is not good for power electronics or the quality of power, said Victor Bhattacharya, lead, operations & maintenance and asset management (utilities) at Ampin Energy Transition.
“In case a power producer anticipates a lower than scheduled power supply, it informs the grid controller than the irradiation is low due to which it cannot inject the required amount of power. In case of over injection of power as per schedule, generators can use power plant controllers to normalize the feed. Many of the large-scale RE plants even face breakdowns in such situations,” Bhattacharya said.
Even though satellite technologies based on historical data and machine learning are used in weather prediction, even these may not be useful at times of global warming and climatic shifts, Bhattacharya added.
Given the intermittency in renewable power generation, the government has been focusing on installing storage systems such as batteries and pump storage projects.
Last month, the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) asked state power utilities and renewable energy implementation agencies to incorporate two-hour energy storage systems, equivalent to 10% of the installed solar project capacity, in future solar tenders, in a bid to ensure round-the-clock power and grid stability.
Fresh push for coal-based power
Further, there has been a fresh push towards coal-based power in the past couple of years. This can be attributed to both the immediate requirement of power to meet rising demand, and the instances of grid instability in the recent past. Battery energy storage systems and pumped storage projects are expected to be the backbone of India’s renewable energy capacity in years ahead.
The Centre has already outlined plans to install an additional 80 GW of coal-based power plants by 2032, which continues to be mainstay. The Economic Survey for 2024 released ahead of the Union budget this year has also emphasized on a strategic and pragmatic approach towards energy transition rather, with an eye on economic cost and also geopolitical scenario.
Vikram V., vice-president & co-group head, corporate ratings, ICRA Ltd said: “It is because of the concerns of grid stability amid growing renewable capacity that states are now coming with storage tenders and renewable power tenders with integrated storage capacity. Further, although coal-based capacity is the base load, ramping up and ramping down of thermal power generation is not easy. Therefore, initiatives are now being taken up to make these plants more flexible, so that whenever there is need to increase generation or decrease, it can be down with greater acceleration.”
Last year, India also witnessed instances of high frequency raising concerns over the grid stability. According to a report by Grid Controller of India, for three days in August 2024, the frequency was above the ceiling of 50.05 Hz. Grid frequency fluctuations were witnessed in December 2022, when the frequency dropped below 49.90 Hz.
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