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India’s ageing fleet of medium and heavy commercial vehicles (M&HCVs) is expected to trigger a significant rise in replacement demand, as truck makers and analysts see fleet operators shifting towards newer, more efficient models with better technology and faster turnaround times.
According to data from manufacturers and ratings agency ICRA, the average age of M&HCV trucks on Indian roads has touched a record high of 10 years. This is the highest it has been in two decades. The sharp increase in fleet age is a result of deferred truck purchases during the Covid-19 pandemic and weak sales in recent years.
“The elevated level of vehicle ageing was fuelled by deferment of new vehicle purchases by fleet owners during the pandemic period, and also with the domestic M&HCV (trucks) volumes staying flattish YoY in FY2024 and registering a 4% YoY decline in FY2025,” ToI cited Kinjal Shah, senior vice-president at ICRA.
“With this, the average M&HCV vehicle age presently remains the highest in the past two decades, which along with the mandatory scrapping of govt vehicles older than 15 years from April 1, 2023, augurs well for replacement demand in the medium term,” she added.
Manufacturers have already begun to prepare for what they expect to be a surge in demand. Shenu Agarwal, managing director and CEO of Ashok Leyland, said, “The outlook for the truck industry in FY26 takes into account the all-time high ageing of the truck fleet which means fleet replacement will definitely happen.” He added that the expected increase in demand will be led by the M&HCV segment, “because the fleet is higher vintage there.”
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Industry data suggests that between FY2010 and now, around 37 lakh trucks have been sold across BS0 to BS6 emission levels. In just the last four years, about 10 lakh BS6 trucks have entered the market, while another 8.5 lakh units of BS4 vehicles continue to operate.That means for nearly 50% of the trucks sold in the last 15 years, the average age is over 11 years — a clear indicator that a large chunk of India’s commercial fleet is nearing the end of its useful life and ripe for replacement.Vinod Aggarwal, managing director and CEO of Volvo Eicher Commercial Vehicles, said, “Replacement demand will be very strong particularly since with improved road infrastructure, the new trucks are running around 15,000 km to 20,000 km per month compared to around 8,000 km to 10,000 km that older trucks manage.”
He also pointed out that newer trucks, equipped with telematics, are designed for more intensive use and faster turnaround times, which further increases their appeal. At present, replacement sales account for 60% of all medium and heavy truck purchases.
While total sales in the segment have not yet rebounded to their peak of 2,95,000 units recorded in FY2019 — with FY2025 sales at 2,48,000 units — there are signs of improvement. “The M&HCV segment is migrating towards higher tonnage and payload wise FY25 truck sales is 10% higher,” said Aggarwal.
(with ToI inputs)
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