International trade has tripled in past 30 years, even as growth has slowed

Political developments in Europe also stimulated cross-border trade. The lifting of the Iron Curtain in 1989 provided the impetus for further integration in Europe. The Maastricht Treaty was signed in 1992, transforming the European Community into the European Union. The customs union became a single internal market, and in 1999 a single currency was also introduced: the euro.

Period of growth after 2004 ended with credit crisis

After falling back in 2002 and 2003, international trade quickly resumed an upward trajectory once again. Between 2004 and 2007, annual growth in both export and import volumes was well over 5 percent.

However, the credit crisis led to a sharp contraction in global trade in 2009. The volume of Dutch exports fell by 11 percent in 2009, while the volume of imports fell by 10 percent. The after-effects of this shock and the euro crisis that followed led to a longer period of economic difficulty for the Netherlands. Nonetheless, international trade continued to grow during this period, even in the years when the Dutch economy stagnated or even contracted.

Economic upturn following the euro crisis

Once the Netherlands had emerged from the euro crisis, a third period of sustained economic growth began. Not even the coronavirus pandemic was able to bring this to an end. A severe economic contraction in 2020 was followed by two years of even stronger economic growth. This is also evident in the import and export figures for those years: growth was buoyant between 2015 and 2022 – except in 2020, the first year of the pandemic.

But this third period of growth is now over. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the consequent increase in oil prices led to faltering global trade in 2023, and growth in both import and export volume and in GDP have stagnated since then. Even so, the latest quarterly figures show a more positive picture, despite continued uncertainty at the international level. By mid-2024, the fall in trade had come to an end, and trade volumes rebounded somewhat in the third quarter.

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