Is the Euro trade still on? Outlook vs USD, CAD and CHF

The Euro has been very tenacious throughout the year.

It is currently the top two in major currency performance this year, with only its neighbor, the Swissie, keeping it in check (the difference in performance between the two is very small).

Trends can be expected to continue, particularly when they reverse flows that have been seen in the past 10 years. So, what has been going on with the Euro since the 2010s?

The Euro was in a secular downtrend against the US Dollar, for example, due to lower growth, a disadvantageous trade balance, companies fleeing the overregulated economic zone, generally lower rates (implying basis trade activity), and some not-so-nice events like the Greek debt crisis.

This year, however, the Joint currency bounced back, with a more united Europe against external menaces (e.g., Russia, economic tensions against the US amid their de-globalization moves), and promises to provide more elastic regulations.

This took the Euro up close to 12.37% against the greenback at its prime.

However, some technicals may indicate that the strong uptrend is slowing down.

Let’s examine the Euro in detail—EURUSD, EURCAD, and EURCHF—to see if the current slowdown anticipates a pullback or if the move really is exhausting.

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