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WASHINGTON — Increases in corn and wheat exports lowered ending stocks, while the soybean domestic balance sheet was unchanged in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s supply and demand estimates report.
The June 12 world agricultural supply and demand estimates report opened with a note that the report “only considers trade polices that are in effect at the time of the publication and assumes that these policies remain in place for the duration of the forecast period.”
Here are the highlights.
Corn: USDA kept the 2025-2026 season-average farm prices received by producers at $4.20 per bushel.
• Corn area and yield forecasts are unchanged. USDA will release its acreage report on June 30, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area.
• Beginning stocks were lowered by 50 million bushels reflecting a forecast increase in exports for 2024-2025. Exports are raised 50 million bushels, based on reported U.S. Census Bureau shipments through the month of April, inspection data during the month of May and current outstanding sales.
• With no use changes for 2025-2026, domestic ending stocks were lowered 50 million bushels to 1.8 billion as a result of old crop export hike that would carried over into the new crop year’s balance sheet.
• For 2024-2025, global corn exports were lowered for Argentina, but raised for the United States and Canada.
• Corn imports were reduced for China and Canada with increases for Turkey, Indonesia and Iraq.
• Foreign corn ending stocks for 2025-2026 were reduced, with cuts to China, South Africa, India and Canada partially offset by an increase for Argentina.
• Global corn ending stocks, at 275.2 million tons, are down 2.6 million from the May estimates.
Soybeans: The U.S. season-average price was unchanged from last month at $10.25 per bushel for new crop.
• U.S.2025-2026 soybean supply and use projections were unchanged this month.
• Global beginning soybean stocks were increased on a 1-million-ton reduction to crush for China in the prior marketing year, guided by the slower-than-expected reported weekly pace to date.
• World crush for 2025-2026 was raised 0.1 million tons on higher use by Pakistan, South Africa and the United Kingdom.
• With exports unchanged, global ending stocks were hiked by 1 million tons to 125.3 million, mainly on higher stocks for China.
Wheat: USDA increased the 2025-2026 season-average price by a dime to $5.40 per bushel from last month.
• U.S. supplies were increased on minimally higher output as all wheat production is projected at 1.921 billion bushels, up 115,000 bushels from last month as higher soft red winter and white winter production offset lower hard red winter production.
• The U.S. all wheat yield was unchanged at 51.6 bushels per acre.
• U.S. exports were hiked by 25 million bushels to 825 million on strong early 2025-2026 sales, especially for hard red winter.
• USDA lowered projected 2025-2026 domestic ending stocks by 25 million bushels to 898 million, but are still 7% above last year.
• Global supplies were projected down 1.2 million tons to nearly 1.073 billion, mainly on reduced beginning stocks for Russia more than offsetting higher production for the European Union and India.
• EU production was raised to 136.6 million on improved conditions in Spain compared to last year. India’s production was increased to a record 117.5 million on the Government’s Third Advanced Estimate.
• Global consumption was increased 1.8 million tons to 809.8 million, mainly on higher food, seed and industrial use for Nigeria, Sudan and India.
• World trade is 1.3 million tons higher at 214.3 million on increased exports for the United States and the EU.
• Projected 2025-2026 global ending stocks were lowered 3 million tons to 262.8 million on reductions for Russia, United States, Iraq and Turkey.
Corn
(2025-2026 marketing year)
Total corn supply: 17.21 billion bushels
Exports: 2.675 billion bushels
Feed, residual use: 5.9 billion bushels
Food, seed, industrial use: 6.885 billion bushels
Ethanol and byproducts: 5.5 billion bushels
Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.75 billion bushels
Soybeans
(2025-2026 marketing year)
Total soybean supply: 4.71 billion bushels
Seed, residual: 110 million bushels
Exports: 1.815 billion bushels
Crushings: 2.49 billion bushels
Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 295 million bushels
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