New Research Links Global Warming to China

China’s significant reductions in air pollution over the past 15 years have inadvertently contributed to an acceleration in global warming, according to a new international study.

Newsweek reached out to the Chinese Ministry of Ecology and Environment by email with a request for comment outside of office hours,

Why It Matters

China remains the world’s largest carbon emitter, responsible for over 30 percent of global carbon emissions as of 2023. The United States and India follow at about 14 percent and 9 percent, respectively.

Despite a rapid expansion of its renewable energy infrastructure, China continues to rely heavily on coal, which still accounts for nearly 60 percent of the country’s electricity supply, according to global energy think tank Ember.

Inside the Findings

The study, led by Bjørn Samset of Norway’s CICERO Center for International Climate Research, found that China’s anti-pollution efforts—in particular slashing its sulfur dioxide emissions by three-quarters—were responsible for up to 80 percent of the observed acceleration in global warming over the past decade. The findings have not yet been peer-reviewed.

Diggers move coal after it was unloaded from ships at the port in Lianyungang, in China’s eastern Jiangsu province on July 12, 2023, for use in power generation plants in the surrounding area.
Diggers move coal after it was unloaded from ships at the port in Lianyungang, in China’s eastern Jiangsu province on July 12, 2023, for use in power generation plants in the surrounding area.
AFP via Getty Images

Sulfur dioxide is a key aerosol emitted from burning fossil fuels. It has a cooling effect on the climate by reflecting sunlight and promoting the formation of bright, long-lasting clouds. As these emissions declined, so too did their masking effect on greenhouse gas-driven warming.

Using advanced climate models, researchers simulated how the sharp drop in aerosols affected global temperatures. Their results closely matched real-world sulfur emission inventories and satellite data.

According to Samset, China’s cleanup has likely added about 0.05°C (0.09°F) to the global temperature increase per decade and contributed 0.07°C of total warming since 1850. “When we started looking at the numbers, it turns out it is definitely macroscopic—it’s not a small effect,” New Scientist quoted him as saying.

“The warming was always there,” Samset added. “We just had some artificial cooling from pollution, and in removing the pollution we are now seeing the full effect of the greenhouse-gas-driven warming.”

Previous studies estimate that up to 150,000 premature deaths are now prevented each year, thanks to cleaner air.

What Happens Next?

As pollution levels stabilize, Samset anticipates the rate of global warming may slow again to the pre-2010 level of around 0.18°C per decade.

The Climate Action Tracker, a joint project of the NewClimate Institute and Climate Analytics policy institute, projects that, under current policies, global temperatures will have risen to around 2.5°C over pre-industrial levels by the end of this century.

That would far overshoot targets set in the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius—preferably 1.5 degrees—to avoid the most severe consequences.

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