Our Terms & Conditions | Our Privacy Policy
Dharmesh Shah, AVP-Technical Analyst, ICICI Direct, says he expects the dollar index to towards 94-95 in the second half of 2025. Overall, the mood remains positive. The Nifty will challenge life high, maybe not in the near term, but by September-October. For the near term, they expect 25,500 as a likely target for the Nifty, keeping a stop loss of 24,700. Adani Port. ABB and Bank of Maharashtra remain 3 top picks.
After the bazooka from RBI, the financials were leading from the front, but for the past two days, we are consolidating in a tight range. Give us your understanding on the index and where are we headed from here on?
Dharmesh Shah: Yes, absolutely. The mood has changed after the surprise 50 basis point cut by the RBI and that helped the Nifty to break out of this long consolidation. For the last three weeks, we have been consolidating in this range of 24,200 to 25,000, and finally managed to close above 25,000. Going forward, we remain positive for the market. Buying the dip should be the strategy and we expect Nifty to head towards 25,500 in the coming few weeks.
Looking at the market breadth, the robust price structure has helped because if you look at the percentage of the stocks trading above the 50, the 200-day moving average has improved, supported by dollar index trading near 99. We expect the dollar index to head towards 94-95 in the second half of 2025. Overall, the mood remains positive. We expect the Nifty to challenge life high, maybe not in the near term, but by September-October, we should be looking for new highs for the Nifty. For the near term, we expect 25,500 as a likely target for the Nifty, keeping a stop loss of 24,700.
When you say you have a bullish call coming in for 25,500 on the Nifty in the coming few days, clearly there is a buy call coming in for the sectors also. What are the sectoral bets that you would be placing?
Dharmesh Shah: If you look at the market, the way that things are improving, banking which was found to have 35% of the weightage in the Nifty, is clearly showing a relative outperformance, making a new high while the Nifty is still away from the new high. We expect Bank Nifty to head towards 61,000 for 2025. Any dip in Bank Nifty should be looked at as a buying opportunity with a strong support of 55,000.
Apart from banking, the interest rate sensitive sectors are the biggest beneficiaries of this rate cut and among them capital goods. The way the government capex plan seems to be moving, it looks like the capital goods index, which has corrected 40% from the top, is gaining momentum after two quarters of decline. So, capital goods, banking, autos, PSUs, and metals are the ones where we remain positive from the near-term structure.
Live Events
Other than that, help us with your understanding on Adani Group counters. The analyst meet is underway, but technically is there any stock within the pack that is looking good to you right now and how do you see the momentum of these stocks shaping up because the fundamental triggers are at play?
Dharmesh Shah: Yes, definitely the Adani Group, in the last two months when the market was correcting, clearly outperformed and the way consolidation happened for the last two years for most of these Adani stocks, it looks like they are on the verge of breakout.
Inside the Adani Group, we do like Adani Ports, the one which remains to be our top pick where if you look at the structure on the weekly as well as on the monthly chart, forming higher top, higher bottom formation, finding support exactly at 20-day moving average, it looks like the stock should see a target price of Rs 1,650 keeping a stop loss at Rs 1,430. Adani Ports remains our top pick.
If you had to give us your picks, what would be your bullish calls?
Dharmesh Shah: We believe the capital goods as a sector looks positive wherein we are constructive on ABB. If you look at the long-term chart for ABB, the intermediate corrections have been 40% to 50% and most of the time, post such corrections, the stock has had a tendency to make a new high or to challenge the 52-week high in the next couple of quarters.
In the current scenario, the stock has corrected 49% from the top, forming a strong base above its 50-day moving average and also, we expect the stock to regain the momentum and challenge the 52-week high in the coming few quarters. ABB, we like for a target of Rs 6,860, keeping a stop loss of Rs 5,640. Apart from capital goods, PSU banks should be gaining momentum. They are clearly showing a breakout of a falling channel of the last 11 months of the corrective phase, clearly indicating the end of the corrective phase for most of these PSU banks.
Within PSU banks, we remain positive on the Bank of Maharashtra. This stock seems to be finding strong support at the 50-month EMA and also falling channel breakout was witnessed there. We expect Bank of Maharashtra to regain the momentum and head towards Rs 65, keeping a stop loss of Rs 51. So, Bank of Maharashtra and ABB remain our top picks.
Images are for reference only.Images and contents gathered automatic from google or 3rd party sources.All rights on the images and contents are with their legal original owners.
Aggregated From –
Comments are closed.