Non-oil exports set to double

As it moves away from its long-standing dependence on oil, Saudi Arabia’s economy is undergoing a major shift. That is according to a new report from Strategic Gears, which highlights the potential for the kingdom’s non-oil exports to more than double, reaching over $100 billion by 2030 through strategic interventions.

The projected growth in non-oil industries is all part of the Saudi Vision 2030 plan, which has already seen non-oil exports of goods and services reach a record high of $137 billion in 2024, marking a 113% increase since the plan’s launch. There has been big investment and government intervention to boost industries like tourism, finance, tech, and the industrial sector.

The report shows that just 104 non-oil products – representing 8% of KSA’s non-oil export basket – account for 80% of total non-oil export earnings. Between 2020 and 2024, these products made up $46 billion in annual exports, yet in 2024 they were 23% below their 2022 peak. Closing this unrealized potential, estimated at $29.3 billion, would lift total exports from this group to nearly $76 billion by 2029.

Source: UN Comtrade, SG analysis

The report also found that scalable products are commercially competitive but currently underleveraged. This category includes 130 products across 40 sectors, and with the right support, their annual export value could increase from $1.67 billion to $2.8 billion by 2029.

Some of these products, though scalable, have not yet been scaled due market access barriers, insufficient batch volumes, or lack of financing. For example, organic chemicals accounts for 15% of the group’s export value, a demonstration of the strategic role of KSA’s chemical sector when it comes to diversification.

There are also near-competitive products, which are on the cusp of competitiveness, but still need some extra support to reach their full potential. These products could grow by an additional $1.3 billion annually in sectors like plastics, paper, iron, and steel. Manufacturing is a major focal point in the Vision 2030 goals.

This category of near-competitive products include about 60 non-oil products that are doing well in global markets and almost at full competitiveness. Overall they hold an additional $1.27 billion in unrealized potential, which would bring their total export potential to $2.85 billion. Support through more targeted policy could bring this about.

The near-competitive products that the report discusses span 29 sectors, though export activity is heavily concentrated in just four: plastics, paper and paperboard, iron and steel, and salt and sulfur, which together account for half of total exports in this group.

Source: UN Comtrade, SG analysis

But above all else, plastics feature prominently, underlining their centrality across all segments of KSA’s industrial export base. The group also includes fast-growing outliers in what are perhaps unexpected agricultural products like coffee, tea, and spices. Spice exports – including pepper, cardamom, chilli, ginger, cumin, and others – grew from $1.8 million to an incredible $27 million from 2020 to 2024.

The non-oil export potential

“The analysis presented in this report confirms that Saudi Arabia’s non-oil export expansion can be driven by a targeted, evidence-based approach that focuses on a concentrated set of high-potential products,” according to Strategic Gears.

“Across the 294 products assessed, the Kingdom has the opportunity to unlock around $32 billion in additional annual export value by 2029. This does not require broad, indiscriminate support for all exporters, but rather four distinct strategies, each aligned with the structural realities of different product types. These strategies move beyond sectoral generalizations and instead treat products as policy portfolios, each with their own growth dynamics, barriers, and institutional needs.”

Source: GASTAT and International Trade Center

The award-winning management consultancy advises policy makers to prioritize scaling the front-runner products, with investment into quality, technology, and market access. Leaders can also unlock latent capacity of scalable products by boosting promotion and aggregation. Another key area of focus should be in pushing near-competitive products ‘over the finish line’ with selective support for certification, productivity, and packaging.

Oil products still make up a large percentage of Saudi exports. The potential for growth in the wide range of non-oil sectors is massive. If Saudi leaders continue to strategize appropriately, the benefits from boosting these non-oil products will provide a major boost to the country economic trajectory.

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