Oil price will fall below $65 this year

The World Bank (WB) has lowered its oil price forecast, APA-Economics reports citing the Bank.

It has been stated that the Brent oil price is projected to average $64/bbl in 2025—almost $17 lower than in 2024—before declining further to $60/bbl in 2026 . This projection is predicated on slowing global economic growth amid rising trade tensions and elevated uncertainty, with a consequent slowdown in global oil demand growth to about 0.7 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026. Global oil supply is expected to increase by 1.2 mb/d in 2025—almost double the rise seen in 2024—reaching a new all-time high of 104.2 mb/d, before going up by a further 1.0 mb/d in 2026. The baseline forecast also assumes that there will be no additional disruptions from geopolitical events and that OPEC+ achieves internal cohesion, with members abiding by agreed quotas.

Following several years when energy price swings have substantially contributed to large changes in inflation, the anticipated downtrend in oil prices is likely to dampen broader price pressures over the forecast period. The direct effects of falling energy prices could take about 0.35 percentage points from global consumer price inflation in 2025.

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