Rebasing pushes Nigeria’s GDP to N372.82trn as poverty deepens Business Hallmark

Nigeria’s economy has grown significantly in nominal terms following the rebasing of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but rising poverty continues to overshadow the upbeat numbers.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced yesterday that GDP expanded by 3.13% in the first quarter of 2025, up from 2.27% recorded in the same quarter of 2024. In nominal terms, the size of the economy has surged to N372.82 trillion ($243bn), up from N205.09 trillion in the previous base year of 2019.

Speaking at a press briefing, the Statistician-General of the Federation, Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, explained that the GDP base year had been revised from 2010 to 2019, following a review process that began in 2018/2019. He stressed that rebasing is a standard statistical procedure designed to reflect changes in economic structure over time.

“By ranking GDP estimates using the 2019 base year, real estate is now the third-largest contributor to the economy, overtaking crude oil and natural gas, which have dropped to fifth position,” Adeniran said.

The top five sectors of the economy are now crop production (17.58%), trade (17.42%), real estate (10.78%), telecommunications (6.78%), and crude petroleum and natural gas (5.85%). This compares to 2019 estimates where crop production (19.62%) and crude petroleum (8.60%) dominated. Adeniran attributed the shift to improved coverage of the informal real estate sector and better data capture in other emerging industries.

The NBS also revealed that the informal sector’s share of the economy has risen slightly to 42.5% from 41.4%.

Data collection and sectoral shifts

According to Adeniran, the latest rebasing exercise incorporated previously underreported activities such as digital services, mobile payments, modular refineries, water transportation, pension and health insurance services, and household employment.

“In nominal terms, Nigeria’s economy grew by 41.1% compared to the previous base year. This is lower than the 59.5% jump recorded during the last rebasing exercise in 2014,” he said.

Advertisement

The economy’s total output in nominal terms was estimated at N213.64 trillion in 2020, rising to N243.30 trillion in 2021, N274.23 trillion in 2022, N314.02 trillion in 2023, and N372.82 trillion in 2024.

Real GDP growth rates were -6.96% in 2020, 0.95% in 2021, 4.32% in 2022, 3.04% in 2023, and 3.38% in 2024.

Oil and non-oil performance

Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production in Q1 2025 rose to 1.62 million barrels per day (mbpd), up from 1.57 mbpd in Q1 2024 and 1.54 mbpd in Q4 2024.

The oil sector grew by 1.87% year-on-year in real terms, down from 4.71% in Q1 2024. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, however, the sector grew by 13.81% and contributed 3.97% to total real GDP.

The non-oil sector remained the dominant driver of growth, expanding by 3.19% in real terms during Q1 2025, compared to 2.17% in the same period last year. Information and Communication, Agriculture, Real Estate, Financial Services, Trade, Construction, and Food Manufacturing were the main contributors. The non-oil sector accounted for 96.03% of GDP in Q1 2025.

Nigeria remains Africa’s fourth-largest economy

Despite the rebasing, Nigeria has not regained its former position as Africa’s largest economy. When converted to dollars using the current exchange rate of N1,529.53/$, Nigeria’s GDP is worth approximately $243.5 billion.

This places the country behind South Africa ($410.34 billion), Egypt ($347.34 billion), and Algeria ($268.88 billion).

Advertisement

Nigeria last topped the continental ranking after its 2014 rebasing exercise, which included fast-growing sectors such as telecommunications, Nollywood, and e-commerce, pushing its GDP to N80.3 trillion ($509.9 billion) in 2013. However, a severe depreciation of the naira—over 1000% since 2015—has eroded the dollar value of the economy.

Analysts’ perspectives

Economic consultant Alhaji Isiaq Ajibola described the rebasing as a positive step, particularly as real estate now outranks oil and gas in economic contribution. He commended the NBS for capturing emerging industries, including fintech platforms like Opay and PalmPay, digital entertainment, and short-let rentals, which have reshaped Nigeria’s economic landscape.

Ajibola, however, warned that GDP figures do not automatically translate into improved living conditions. “Citizens may hear that the economy is bigger, but jobs are still scarce, inflation is high, and living standards have not improved,” he said.

Rising poverty despite growth

The World Bank has projected that Nigeria’s poverty rate will rise by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027. In its latest Africa’s Pulse report, the bank identified Nigeria, alongside the Democratic Republic of Congo, as among resource-dependent African economies likely to see worsening poverty due to structural weaknesses.

According to the NBS’s multidimensional poverty index, 63% of Nigerians (about 133 million people) live in poverty. The situation has worsened due to the removal of fuel subsidies in 2023, which sharply reduced household purchasing power.

Economist Dr. Marcel Okeke criticised the government’s focus on growth statistics while the quality of life continues to deteriorate.

“There is a difference between economic growth and economic development. While the GDP numbers look good on paper, inflation is eroding purchasing power, and the naira’s collapse means people are worse off,” Okeke said.

Advertisement

He noted that even with the new minimum wage of N70,000, the purchasing power is far below what N33,000 could buy just a few years ago. “Government may celebrate sharing N1.8 trillion among states, but the real value of that money is far less than what smaller allocations could buy in the past,” he added.

_{Images are for reference only.Images and contents gathered automatic from google or 3rd party sources.All rights on the images and contents are with their legal original owners.}