Rs 2.4 lakh crore wiped out from Mukesh Ambani stocks in 1 year. Can Reliance drive the comeback?

Ten companies controlled by billionaire Mukesh Ambani have seen a combined erosion of nearly Rs 2.4 lakh crore in market value over the past year, led by flagship Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), which lost Rs 2.21 lakh crore as its shares declined nearly 11% during the period.

Jio Financial Services followed, with a market cap erosion of about Rs 8,958 crore after a 4% drop in its stock. Among the smaller entities, Alok Industries lost Rs 5,169 crore, representing a 37% decline, while Just Dial declined 34%, erasing Rs 3,610 crore in value.

Network18 Media shed Rs 2,269 crore after tumbling 47%, while Hathway Cable fell 31%, erasing Rs 1,179 crore in market value. Lotus Chocolate dropped 43%, cutting Rs 1,114 crore, and Den Networks gave up Rs 880 crore as its stock declined 34%. Reliance Industrial Infrastructure lost Rs 504 crore following a 27% fall, while Hathway Bhawani Cabletel shed about Rs 3 crore with a 16% slide.

In all, Ambani’s listed companies saw Rs 2.4 lakh crore in market value vanish over the past twelve months, as investors balked at near-term risks — even while brokerages continue to tout the group’s long-term bets on telecom, new energy, and AI.

Brokerages remain upbeat on RIL, even as its stock faltered following its AGM last week. Jefferies, valuing Jio at $146 billion, reaffirmed a ‘Buy’ rating with a target of Rs 1,670, citing strength across telecom and energy. Nuvama, with the most bullish target at Rs 1,733, said a “multi-decadal opportunity is visible in the new energy business,” while O2C expansion is on track and AI and FMCG will act as additional growth drivers.

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However, the optimism is tempered by concerns over the Jio IPO.“While Jio may attract higher value in the IPO, RIL shareholders may not benefit significantly due to the holdco valuation discount,” Nuvama warned.Still, analysts expect Jio to anchor RIL’s growth, projecting a 19% EBITDA CAGR through FY28.

Jio Financial Services posted a 3.8% rise in June-quarter profit to Rs 325 crore, with operating revenue climbing 47% to Rs 612 crore.

Geojit Investments upgraded the stock to a ‘Buy’ rating with a target of Rs 361, highlighting its “prudent capital allocation strategy” and strong growth outlook.

Deven Choksey maintained a ‘Hold’ rating at Rs 325, citing “volatility in earnings and an uncertain near-term” despite favorable long-term prospects.

Just Dial delivered a 13% profit increase in Q1 FY26, but collections fell nearly 20% sequentially, raising concerns over future revenue growth.

“Collections growth declined sharply… we expect revenue growth to moderate over coming quarters,” Nuvama said.

Still, the brokerage maintained a ‘Buy’ rating with a target of Rs 1,280, pointing to valuation support and the potential for a near 7% dividend yield if the company distributes its entire annual profit.

After a year that erased Rs 2.4 lakh crore in shareholder wealth across Ambani-led companies, Reliance’s next moves carry outsized weight. With the Jio IPO looming in 2026, big bets on AI, and a push into green energy, the key question is whether Reliance can lead the turnaround – and restore confidence in India’s most-watched corporate empire.

Also read | Reliance Jio IPO set for 2026, analysts see tariff hike and execution risks ahead

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

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