Rules-based global order at risk of degenerating into law of the jungle: Vivian Balakrishnan

SINGAPORE: The rules-based international order that has prevailed for 80 years is at risk of degenerating into the “law of the jungle” where “might makes right”.

And in its place, a new world order is taking shape, characterised by profound unpredictability, instability and volatility, said Singapore’s Foreign Affairs Minister Vivian Balakrishnan on Monday (Mar 3).

“The world is now shifting from unipolarity to multipolarity, from free trade to protectionism, from multilateralism to unilateralism, from globalisation to hyper-nationalism, from openness to xenophobia, from optimism to anxiety,” he said, while laying out his ministry’s spending plans for the year.

Big powers are taking a narrower view of their national interests and adopting a more transactional, sometimes coercive, approach, Dr Balakrishnan told parliament.

Add to that a lack of strategic trust between them and a deep anxiety to stay ahead of each other, and the result is sharper rivalry, autarky and the fracturing of global supply chains.

“Countries have turned inwards, ostensibly in the name of national security, resilience and de-risking, in order to secure their individual interests in this turbulent environment,” Dr Balakrishnan said.

“We may, in fact, be reverting to a time when the world is divided into blocs controlled by big powers, and by definition, this must be the loss of choice and autonomy for small states.”

A NEW WORLD ORDER

In his speech, Dr Balakrishnan then listed three broad sets of implications for Singapore: Trade, war and the global commons.

On the economic front, he pointed to how the new United States administration and other major countries are using restrictions such as tariffs to address non-trade related policy objectives, and applying them to partners, competitors and adversaries alike.

“Tit-for-tat tariffs by other countries can easily escalate into a global trade war,” Dr Balakrishnan warned.

Singapore has not been directly targeted, but tariffs will have a major impact on the volume and patterns of world trade, and significantly affect the country as a transshipment hub.

But the problems go beyond just trade and tariffs, he added.

Singapore, as an open economy, allows companies from all over the world to operate in the country as long as they play by the rules, said Dr Balakrishnan.

But this paradigm is now at risk, as technology becomes a focal point for strategic contestation between the big powers, and several countries impose restrictions and export controls on semiconductor chips, critical minerals and data.

Amid heightened scrutiny over advanced technology, Singapore may be criticized for working with or hosting companies and officials from one side or the other or both, the minister noted. 

“There will be centrifugal pressure from all sides that will make it increasingly hard for us to operate, and it will threaten our raison d’etre as an open hub.” 

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