Satellites Reveal Global Sea Levels Are Rising Exactly as Scientists Predicted in the 1990s

A recent study validates the accuracy of 1990s climate predictions regarding sea level rise. Discover how these early forecasts hold up against modern observations and the implications for coastal regions.

Rising Seas

Some low-lying island nations may become uninhabitable within decades due to rising seas. Countries like Maldives already experiencing severe impacts.

For over 30 years, satellites have been observing how the world’s sea levels are changing. Recently two researchers from Tulane University looked back at climate predictions made in the 1990s and found that these early forecasts were surprisingly accurate. The findings were published in a scientific journal called Earth’s Future.

The lead researcher, Torbjörn Törnqvist, explained that to really see if climate predictions are right, scientists need to wait for many years and compare them with what really happened.

“We were quite amazed how good those early projections were, especially when you think about how crude the models were back then, compared to what is available now,” Törnqvist said. “For anyone who questions the role of humans in changing our climate, here is some of the best proof that we have understood for decades what is really happening, and that we can make credible projections.”

The scientists believe that the real challenge now is to use the global data to help specific areas. Since sea levels don’t rise the same way everywhere, detailed forecasts are needed to help people prepare in different regions.

What Were the Findings

Satellites first started measuring sea levels in the early 1990s. They found that the global sea level has been rising at an average speed of about one eighth of an inch (around 3 millimetres) per year. More recently, scientists noticed this rise is speeding up.

According to a report by NASA researchers in October 2024, the rate at which sea levels are rising has more than doubled in the last 30 years. This finding led to a comparison with forecasts made in the 1990s, when satellite data was not yet complete.

In 1996, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a report shortly after satellite measurements of the oceans started. They predicted that global sea levels would increase by almost 8 centimetres (about 3 inches) over the next 30 years. And the new research shows that the actual rise has been almost exactly that.

However, the earlier forecasts did not consider how much ice from Greenland and Antarctica would melt in the coming years. Scientists now understand that as ocean temperatures rise, ice sheets can break apart more quickly than expected. The ice flowing from Greenland into the ocean has also increased faster than predicted.

Why Is It Important

Scientists are concerned how significant collapse of Antarctic ice would lead to a much faster rise in sea levels. If that happens, coastal areas in the United States, especially low-lying regions like Louisiana, might experience severe flooding.

This study was conducted with the help of experts from the University of Oslo in Norway and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory at Caltech in the United States.

It highlights how important it is to closely watch the oceans and ice sheets, using the most advanced technology available. Continuous monitoring will help people around the world make better choices to protect themselves from rising seas.

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