South Africa, Nigeria, Angola hold back sub-Saharan Africa’s growth – World Bank

The World Bank projects that economic activity in Sub-Saharan Africa will climb from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.5% in 2025, and further accelerate to 4.3% by 2026–27.

However, growth is being weighed down by some of the region’s largest economies, Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa, according to the bank’s latest Africa’s Pulse report.

Excluding these three countries, the rest of the subcontinent is expected to expand by 4.6% in 2025 and quicken to 5.7% in 2026–27. Even so, the outlook remains vulnerable to heightened risks from global policy uncertainty.

“Sub-Saharan African economies will navigate an uncertain landscape amid greater policy uncertainty, which may lead to changes in the world trade order; ongoing (regional and national) geopolitical shifts that may affect commodity prices, disrupt international relations, and yield further fragmentation; reduced foreign aid budgets worldwide; and challenges posed by extreme weather events.”

Inflation cooling across region but remains uneven

According to the report, in 2024, about 70% of Sub-Saharan African countries saw inflation decline due to improved currency stability, tighter monetary and fiscal policies, and easing global supply chain pressures.

However, inflation remains highly uneven across the region. Out of 47 countries, 14, including Angola, Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, Sudan, and Zimbabwe, still face double-digit inflation rates.

The World Bank projects that by 2027, the number of countries with inflation above 10% will fall to six.

“As inflation cools down and converges to targets, and (global and domestic) financial conditions remain accommodative, it is expected that household consumption and investment will support the region’s growth acceleration,”

Poverty remains high

The World Bank said that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa has been insufficient to significantly reduce extreme poverty. Real income per capita in 2025 is projected to remain about 2% below its 2015 peak.

Although per capita growth is expected to accelerate to an average annual rate of 1.8% between 2025 and 2027, it will only drive a modest decline in poverty.

The World Bank forecasts that poverty, measured at $2.15 per person per day in 2017 international purchasing power parity, will peak at 43.9% in 2025 before falling slightly to 43.2% by 2027.

Limited investments in sectors that generate income for the poor, lingering inflation effects, and a likely reduction in global donor aid pose challenges to deeper poverty reduction.

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