Stock Market Outlook: Will inflation data, India-Pakistan ceasefire, and Q4 results boost investor sentiment?

The Indian stock market is expected to take cues from recent geopolitical developments, macroeconomic data releases, and corporate earnings this week, analysts said on Saturday.A key factor influencing investor sentiment will be the recent agreement between India and Pakistan to halt all military actions across land, air, and sea following days of intense cross-border drone and missile strikes.”This de-escalation removes a key overhang on investor sentiment and is likely to be seen as a major positive development by financial markets. Historically, markets have shown resilience and a tendency to recover following such geopolitical de-escalations,” said Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities Ltd.He noted that all eyes will be on foreign institutional investors (FIIs), who turned sellers in Friday’s session after being net buyers over the last two weeks.Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research at Religare Broking Ltd, highlighted the importance of this week’s domestic triggers, saying:”This week will be pivotal, marked by several key domestic triggers. Geopolitical developments, particularly the ongoing tensions with Pakistan, will continue to remain in focus. On the macroeconomic front, investors will closely monitor the release of key data points including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Wholesale Price Index (WPI), and trade figures for exports and imports.”He added that corporate earnings would also play a significant role, with major companies such as Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, GAIL, Hero MotoCorp, Tata Motors, Lupin, and BHEL set to announce their fourth-quarter results.Foreign investors have continued to show faith in Indian equities, pumping in Rs 14,167 crore so far this month, supported by strong domestic fundamentals and favourable global cues.“Alongside geopolitical concerns, the ongoing Q4 corporate earnings season will continue to drive stock-specific action,” said Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group.Despite the earlier tensions, overall market sentiment has held firm, experts noted.”Investor confidence had been buoyed by sustained foreign institutional inflows and record GST collections in April, both of which signalled strong underlying economic resilience,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.However, the domestic benchmarks reflected some pressure last week. The BSE Sensex declined by 1,047.52 points (1.30%), and the NSE Nifty dropped 338.7 points (1.39%).Advising a long-term outlook, Vaibhav Porwal, Co-Founder of wealth management platform Dezerv, said:”Investors should zoom out and look at the markets from a broader perspective. Indian equity markets stand on strong fundamentals and we don’t have much to worry about.”Looking ahead, Vinod Nair added that markets will be particularly focused on key domestic macroeconomic indicators like CPI and WPI inflation data.



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