The NCAA was never going to drop the hammer on Michigan

The city of Columbus is still standing, even though the hopes of many of its citizens were dashed on Friday. After investigating the University of Michigan football program and Connor Stalions, the mastermind of an elaborate sign-stealing operation, for nearly two years, the NCAA opted for a wrist-slap over handing down any penalties with real teeth.

Yes, there’s a significant financial fine that could cost the Michigan athletic department upwards of $20 million. Money is real, and that’s a lot of it.

But would you spend $20 million to win a college football national championship? Of course you would. Ohio State famously spent about that much on name, image and likeness (NIL) deals for the team that won its own national title this past January. And now we can put a price tag on the one its rival Michigan won the year before.

Despite everything Stalions did from 2021 through half of the 2023 season — from the “counterintelligence” network of individuals he called the “KGB” to the “dirty film” they provided when they sent him sideline footage of opponents’ signs, per NCAA investigators — Michigan will not lose its championship trophy.

The Wolverines will not vacate any wins from that championship season. The current team won’t face a postseason ban, either. The NCAA opted against wielding the biggest weapons in its arsenal against a program that has spent nearly five years in the crosshairs of its enforcement arm. The NCAA’s Committee on Infractions did the three things it has done to rule-breakers in recent years: 1) fine the school; 2) punish the so-called adults in the room; and 3) call it a day.

Stalions got hit with an eight-year show-cause penalty; he’ll remain radioactive in college athletics. Former Michigan head coach and current Los Angeles Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh got hit with a 10-year show-cause penalty; he’ll never come back to coach in college anyway. That penalty means nothing to him in the NFL, and he no longer has to pretend to take NCAA rules seriously in the pros, either.

And that’s that.

Michigan dealt estimated $20 million fine by NCAA

Nicole Auerbach and Joshua Perry break down the penalties levied against Michigan football, including an estimated $20 million fine, and explain how the NCAA’s intent was to punish the coaches and not current players.

Current head coach Sherrone Moore will be suspended a total of three games over two years because he initially deleted text messages that NCAA investigators sought at the start of the sign-stealing scandal. That’s only one game more than Michigan offered up as part of self-imposed sanctions. It looks like Moore will get to cherry pick the games he misses (to skip the third and fourth games) so he can coach Week 2 vs. Oklahoma — his alma mater.

In its public report, the NCAA repeatedly stated that Stalions was uncooperative with both the NCAA’s investigation and its infractions hearing process. It said that “Harbaugh ran a program that was largely dismissive of rules compliance. There was little, if any, emphasis on following the rules.” Staffers disrespected compliance officers over and over again.

But that lack of cooperation was never going to come back and bite Michigan. The NCAA was never really going to hammer the Wolverines — not in the current college athletic environment.

The NCAA was not going to vacate wins from Michigan’s 2023 season because its rules only allow it to use the vacation of records as a penalty for cases involving ineligible players. This wasn’t that. And the organization would have had a difficult time trying to take away a title when NCAA president Charlie Baker said Michigan won it “fair and square.”

The NCAA was not going to give Michigan a postseason ban and penalize players who had nothing to do with any wrongdoing from years ago. The Committee on Infractions admitted that it should have implemented a postseason ban because Michigan is a repeat offender with aggravating factors — like participants’ lack of cooperation, evidenced best by Stalions throwing his phone in a pond as to avoid handing it over to investigators. But the COI was not going to actually implement that ban. It has avoided postseason bans even in cases involving egregious rule-breaking for a few years now.

“A postseason ban would unfairly penalize student-athletes for the actions of coaches and staff who are no longer associated with the Michigan football program,” the report stated. “Thus, a more appropriate penalty is an offsetting financial penalty.”

The COI added that its current penalty guidelines and rationale are “at odds with the current state of college athletics” and asked that NCAA members review and modify the available penalties at their disposal.

But if the COI isn’t really able to vacate wins and hand out postseason bans like it used to, what penalties are even significant? What penalties would deter coaches from breaking rules in the future?

Certainly not what we saw here with Michigan. Schools would gladly raise the money required to pay a fine if they can get away with pushing the boundaries past what’s allowed by the NCAA.

Did Stalions’ actions worsen punishment from NCAA?

Nicole Auerbach and Joshua Perry examine how former Michigan staffer Connor Stalions’ repeated lack of compliance with the NCAA could have made the penalties worse for both him and the school.

“I think penalty here was significant,” COI case chief hearing officer Norman Bay said on Friday. “I think it was meaningful, and I think it sends a message to the membership that these rules matter, that having a compliance program and a strong culture of compliance matters, and schools who fail to comply will be held accountable.”

I think most of us would disagree. The message sent on Friday was pretty clear — but it wasn’t what Bay thinks it is.

The era of heavy-handed NCAA penalties is over. It’s worth looking for shortcuts, playing in the gray area and even cheating outright. If you get caught, you’ll simply pay a fine for your bad behavior — just like they do in the pros. There’s no real alternative in this day and age, and because of that, there’s no real deterrent.

And as it turns out, nearly two years after Connor Stalions became a household name, it was never worth putting all the eggs in the NCAA’s basket after all. It’s an entity that has had its power neutered, leaving it with little more than the ability to create headlines with a Friday news dump. The years-long saga ends with a whimper.

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