This Blue-Chip Dividend Stock Is Stuck in the Tariff Crosshairs. Can Cost Cuts Save the Day?

The global pharmaceutical sector is under increasing pressure as rising trade tensions drive countries to introduce new tariffs on drug exports. These policy shifts are straining international supply chains and pushing operating costs sharply higher.

At the center of this global shake-up stands Merck & Co. (MRK), a name synonymous with blue-chip dividends. With patent protection for Keytruda, which accounts for about 40% of Merck’s pharma sales, set to expire in 2028, the clock is ticking for the company to chart its next growth chapter.

In response, Merck has launched a bold $3 billion cost-cutting plan, even as it braces for potential tariff-driven headwinds. Can Merck’s focus on cost discipline and innovation sustain its dividend legacy amid tariff shocks and patent cliffs? Let’s find out.

Merck & Co. (MRK) is a pharmaceutical powerhouse with a market capitalization of approximately $196.1 billion, anchored by an industry-defining oncology portfolio and expanding animal health business. Merck’s $3.24 annualized dividend per share and robust 4.15% yield remain highly attractive, underpinned by a disciplined 40.41% dividend payout ratio. Backed by over a decade of growth, MRK has been a reliable choice for income investors.

Shares trade down 20.3% year-to-date and 30% over the past 52 weeks. Merck is cheap at current levels, with a forward price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.75x, a 48% discount to the sector median, while its price-to-sales ratio of 3.03 also looks appealing.

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The latest earnings report, released on July 29, gave a granular snapshot of the crosscurrents facing MRK. Total worldwide sales clocked in at $15.8 billion, a 2% dip year-over-year, with CEO Robert Davis acknowledging that “performance was in-line with our expectations,” and highlighting the company’s resilience in oncology and animal health. On the bottom line, GAAP EPS came in at $1.76, with non-GAAP EPS at $2.13, including a $0.07 per share charge tied to the closure of the Hengrui Pharma license agreement.

Keytruda again proved its centrality, contributing $8.0 billion in quarterly sales, up 9% year-over-year, and comprising nearly half of total pharmaceutical revenues. That strength countered dramatic weakness from Gardasil/Gardasil 9, which plunged 55% due to suspended China shipments amid soft demand, amplifying the impact of international trade volatility on results.

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New launch WINREVAIR offered an emerging bright spot, notching $336 million for the quarter and reaching $1 billion in cumulative sales just over a year post-approval. Animal Health delivered a standout 11% sales increase to $1.6 billion, reinforcing Merck’s diversification ambitions.

Merck is rolling out a $3 billion multiyear optimization plan designed to reshape its operations and drive $1.7 billion in annual cost savings by 2027. This initiative is already in motion, with a precise focus on boosting efficiencies across administrative, sales, and select R&D functions. The urgency is real, as Merck prepares for the 2028 expiration of Keytruda’s US patent, a pivotal event that will expose the company to fierce biosimilar competition and pressure future cash flows.

The company’s swift action is evident from the $649 million restructuring charge registered this quarter alone, making it clear that Merck’s leadership is committed to preemptively reinforcing the business against industry headwinds and potential market shocks.

On the growth front, Merck is not content to simply trim costs. The July 2025 announcement of its planned $10 billion acquisition of Verona Pharma underscores a strategic pivot toward pipeline diversification and therapeutic innovation. Bringing Ohtuvayre, the first new inhaled COPD treatment in more than two decades and FDA approved in June 2024, into Merck’s suite of assets puts Merck ahead of rivals in addressing growing global respiratory health needs.

Additionally, Merck is investing in digital transformation to elevate its commercial capabilities. By deepening its partnership with Veeva Systems (VEEV) and rolling out Veeva Vault CRM, Merck is upgrading the core technology that will drive the success of upcoming product launches.

The latest earnings consensus sees the company posting $2.41 per share in the third quarter and $8.97 in earnings for the full year, representing a striking 53.5% year-over-year jump for Q3 and 17% for the fiscal year. This optimism is reflected in management’s own outlook, with the company narrowing full-year revenue expectations to between $64.3 billion and $65.3 billion and pegging non-GAAP EPS between $8.87 and $8.97.

Sentiment among analysts is cautiously upbeat, if not outright bullish. The 24 analysts in coverage have given MRK a “Moderate Buy” rating overall. The mean price target stands at $103.18, suggesting an impressive 30.1% upside from recent levels.

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Still, not every voice on Wall Street is equally enthusiastic. Cantor Fitzgerald, for instance, recently maintained a “Neutral” rating with an $83.00 price target, down from its former $85.00 price target, noting that while Merck’s latest earnings were largely in line with expectations, the combination of narrowed guidance and a massive $3 billion restructuring program highlights the tough road ahead.

In the near term, investors should keep a sharp eye on Merck’s progress with its $3 billion cost-cutting drive, the outcome of its Verona Pharma acquisition, and any updates on managing the looming Keytruda patent expiration. Cost cuts alone probably will not be a magic bullet as real upside may require successful pipeline launches and smart deal-making. If Merck executes well and avoids tariff surprises, shares could have room to rebound from current depressed levels. Still, until results show clear momentum, expect the stock to stay volatile.

On the date of publication, Ebube Jones did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

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