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US government scientists said on Thursday they expect an above-normal hurricane season in 2025, producing three to five major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111mph (179km/h).
The Atlantic hurricane season, which begins on 1 June, is forecast to produce 13 to 19 named tropical storms with winds of at least 39mph, according to the US National Weather Service. Of those storms, six to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes with winds of 74mph or higher.
“Warmer sea surface temperatures are probably the major contributor to this,” said Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service.
Academic and private weather forecasters have issued similar outlooks for the hurricane season, which continues through 30 November.
Between 1991 and 2020, there have been an average of 14.4 named tropical storms annually in the Atlantic, including on average 3.2 major hurricanes among 7.2 hurricanes.
Colorado State University meteorologists said in early April the 2025 hurricane season across the Atlantic basin will be above average, with 17 named tropical storms, including nine hurricanes, of which four are predicted to be major.
AccuWeather issued its 2025 hurricane season forecast in late March. The private weather service expects between three and five major hurricanes out of seven to 10 hurricanes from 13 to 18 named tropical storms.
The 2024 hurricane season was one of the costliest on record. There were five major hurricanes, out of a total of 11 hurricanes from 18 named storms.
The deaths of 427 people were attributed to 2024’s storms and losses totaled $130bn.
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