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USDA projects India’s 2025-26 cotton output at 31.4 million bales
The Post has estimated yields at 476 kg per hectare for 2025-26 marketing year, up from current season’s 464 kg per hectare
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NAGARA GOPAL
The USDA’s local office in Mumbai has estimated the Indian cotton output for 2025-26 season starting October, flat at 24.5 million bales of 480 pounds (31.4 million bales of 170 kg each), despite a decline in area with farmers shifting to other remunerative crops in the key producing States in Central India. Post estimates India’s 2025-26 cotton area lower at 11.2 million hectares from previous year’s 11.5 m ha.
Farmers across Central India have preferred to plant competing crops such as paddy, maize, and groundnut due to higher profitability, while the reduction in acreage is expected to be offset by increased yields resulting from favourable monsoon conditions. The Post has estimated yields at 476 kg per hectare for 2025-26 marketing year, up from current season’s 464 kg per hectare.
India’s consumption of cotton is forecast marginally higher at 25.7 million bales of 480 pounds each (25.5 million bales) on steady apparel demand and potential export surge following ratification of the UK-India Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA). As of July 24, domestic lint prices are 5 to 6 cents higher than the Cotlook A-Index, leading mills to increase their reliance on imports. Trade sources report mill utilisation at approximately 90 percent, driven by strong export demand for yarn, fabric, and apparel, supporting a higher consumption forecast, the Post said.
RMG, yarn exports up
However, elevated domestic fibre prices are discouraging mills from building inventory beyond immediate requirements. The April/June export shipments of readymade garments indicate a 9 per cent growth as compared to the same period last year. Similarly, cotton yarn exports are 8 per cent higher than the five-year average and cotton fabric shipments are 19 per cent higher than the five-year average. A depreciation of the Indian rupee and a 1.4 per cent decline in cotton yarn prices over the past three months have enabled spinners to export more affordable yarn to neighboring markets of Bangladesh, China and Vietnam, it said.
The eight per cent increase in the minimum support price (MSP) for medium- and long-staple cotton, effective October 1, is pushing fiber prices higher, encouraging mills to increase imports.
In North India, sowing is up by 20 per cent in Punjab and 27 per cent in Rajasthan, but declined by 16 per cent in Haryana. Limited irrigation water in Punjab led farmers to shift from paddy to cotton, while in Rajasthan, farmers replaced soyabeans to meet the rising fiber demand from local textile mills. In Haryana, low yields, frequent pest infestation, and high labor costs, along with water scarcity, prompted farmers to switch to other crops.
In central India, sowing is underway, with planted area nearly 9 per cent lower than last year. The acreage is down by 7 per cent in Gujarat, 18 per cent in Madhya Pradesh and 7 per cent in Maharashtra. Both Gujarat and Maharashtra have experienced excessive rainfall over the past month, causing infestation and potential yield losses. Farmers have been advised to undertake weeding for soil aeration and improve drainage to remove excess water. The crop is currently in the germination and vegetative stage, it said.
In South India, cotton planting is 8 per cent higher than last year, driven by a 17 per cent increase in area in Karnataka and 3 per cent in Telangana. In Telangana, sowing is underway with early crops in the vegetative stage, but excess moisture and waterlogging raise the risk of para wilt—a stress-induced condition where plants suddenly wilt and drop leaves and bolls prematurely due to oxygen deprivation in waterlogged soils. In Karnataka, sowing continues in the north with support from above-normal rainfall, while crops in the south—25 to 35 days old—are in the flowering and vegetative stages under normal rainfall conditions.
Published on August 26, 2025
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