Vietnam’s GDP growth eases to 6.6% in 2025: World Bank

According to WB experts, global economic activity is set to slow from 2.8 % in 2024 to 2.3 % and 2.4 % in 2025 and 2026, respectively (down 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points from the January 2025 forecast). The reasons are weaker global trade growth and prolonged geopolitical tensions.

The United States and China, Vietnam’s largest trading partners, are both expected to decelerate in the second half of this year, further limiting demand for Vietnamese products.

In addition, rising policy uncertainty is weighing negatively on investor and consumer confidence.

For export-oriented economies like Vietnam, these trends readily affect growth, with Vietnam’s GDP growth projected at 6.6 per cent in 2025.

“After strong momentum in the first half of 2025, Vietnam’s economy is expected to slow during the remaining months of 2025 as overall export growth likely returns to rates seen in more stable periods,” the report says.

The report stresses that the baseline forecast assumes a smaller net-export contribution to GDP growth. However, the outlook will depend heavily on how trade conditions evolve.

Looking further ahead, the WB projects GDP growth of 6.1 % in 2026 as the global trade slowdown filters through, then a recovery to 6.5 % in 2027 as world trade improves and Vietnam continues to compete effectively in global value chains.

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