Original Coverage & Source Attribution: investinglive.com
EUROPEAN SESSION
In the European session, we only have the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index which is expected at 2.1 vs 2.7 prior. The data won’t change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted.
The focus remains mainly on US-Iran developments and the fallout from the US midterm elections. The Democratic Congress is a net negative for growth giving the constrained fiscal expansion, but a lot hinges on the US-Iran war.
Markets will need a resolution to price out the most negative outcomes and revise growth expectations to the upside amid improving inflation and lower rate hike bets. As long as the conflict and the energy disruptions continue, markets will likely continue to price an economic slowdown.
AMERICAN SESSION
In the American session, we will just get the NY Fed consumer inflation expectations survey. This is never a market-moving release, so the market reaction will be muted.
After the much stronger than expected NFP report, the focus shifted to the US CPI due tomorrow. The market is already pricing in a 78% chance of a hike in December, so we will need very soft data to bring the probabilities down to 50% or key Fed members pushing against the current expectations.
Considering all the economic data, the Fed doesn’t have any excuse not to keep tightening. Their main fear must be a bear market in the stock market as that’s going to slow down the economy significantly. Long term yields are no longer looking at inflation as they are moving in lockstep with the stock market amid growth concerns.
CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS
- 13:40 GMT/08:40 ET – Fed’s Bowman (dovish – voter)
- 15:00 GMT/10:00 ET – Fed’s Goolsbee (hawkish – non voter)
- 16:00 GMT/11:00 ET – ECB’s Cipollone (neutral – voter)
- 17:15 GMT/12:15 ET – Fed’s Barkin (neutral – non voter)
- 17:25 GMT/12:25 ET – BoE Governor Bailey (neutral – voter)
