Gold price plunged
below the psychologically critical $4,000 level on Monday, losing over 3% after
its steepest single-day decline since 2020, as investors reduced safe-haven
positions following breakthrough progress in US-China trade negotiations.
The
precious metal continues its retreat today (Tuesday), 28 October 2025,, down
another 1% to $3,963.53 per ounce, marking a three-week low and the first
sustained move below $4,000 since the October rally stalled.
In this
article, I explore why the price of gold is going down, conduct a technical
analysis of the XAU/USDT chart, and identify a key support zone, suggesting
that gold may correct by another 17%.
The selloff
accelerated over the weekend as US and Chinese negotiators meeting during the
ASEAN conference in Malaysia hammered out a framework agreement that eliminates
the threat of 100% US tariffs on Chinese goods and secures a one-year delay on
rare earth export restrictions.
Treasury
Secretary Scott Bessent stated the proposed tariffs are “off the
table,” dramatically reducing the geopolitical risk premium that had
propelled gold to record highs above $4,380 just days earlier.
|
Gold |
Data (Oct |
|
Current |
$3,963.53/oz |
|
Daily |
-$18.00 |
|
Monday’s |
-3.0% |
|
Year-High |
$4,381.58/oz |
|
Decline |
-9.5% |
|
Year-to-Date |
+42.83% |
|
Support |
$3,830 (50 |
“Gold
is losing due to decreasing risk regarding international trade, while
simultaneously reacting to recent moves from ETF funds,” Michał Stajniak, Deputy
Chief Analyst at XTB, explained the catalyst for gold’s decline. “During the
ASEAN conference in Malaysia, a meeting between Chinese and American
negotiators produced a working agreement that eliminates the risk of 100%
tariffs on Chinese products and is meant to reduce rare earth export
restrictions from China to the USA.”
How Low Can Gold Go? Technical
Breakdown Below $4,000 Triggers Selloff
According
to my technical analysis, gold is realizing profits after testing historical
maximums around the $4,380 per ounce level, where it remained from October 17
to 19. On October 19, there was a strong single-day correction, the strongest
since 2020, which triggered a wave of selling and ultimately pushed prices
below the psychological threshold of $4,000 per ounce, after gold slid sharply
again on Monday, losing over 3%.
Tuesday’s
session brings a continuation of declines, with gold currently down 1% and
testing the $3,942 level. Where can gold head from here? According to my
forecasts based on technical analysis, the first target level for declines will
be the 50 EMA located currently around the $3,830 level.
The main
technical support, however, remains the zone of historical highs drawn from
April through the end of August, between $3,270 and $3,440 per ounce.
Simultaneously, the 200 EMA falls in this location, creating a strong
reaccumulation zone and confluence of supports. Gold has approximately 17%
downside to the lower boundary of this range from current levels.
And
although this would be a strong correction that we haven’t seen in a long time,
I would use this as an opportunity to buy at more attractive prices, rather
than as a reason to panic. Everything above the blue 200 EMA is still an
uptrend.
How low can gold price go now? Source: Tradingview.com
Such a
decline would also allow the RSI indicator to reset, which has been moving in
the overbought zone for a long time and hasn’t been in the oversold zone for
many long months, which would support a buy signal in the range I’ve marked in
green on the chart.
ETF Outflows Amplify
Profit-Taking Pressure
Stajniak
highlighted the role of institutional flows in accelerating the decline:
“Friday also saw the largest gold sales on the market among ETF funds
since May. Last week also brought the first weekly decline since the second
week of August.” The combination of reducing geopolitical risk premiums
and institutional profit-taking after gold’s extended rally to record highs
created powerful selling pressure that overwhelmed traditional support levels.
However, Marek
Rogalski, Chief FX Analyst at BossaFX, noted that the technical damage remains
limited thus far: “Nevertheless, declines in precious metal futures are
not that large, the market has not retested the lows from October 22 at $4,021.
At the same time, we remain above the $4,000 barrier.”
This
suggests the correction may represent healthy profit-taking rather than a
fundamental reversal of gold’s long-term bull market.
In the
coming days, an interesting topic for gold will be the Fed’s announcement on
Wednesday, according to Rogalski. “The rate cut is certain, and the
Reserve will most likely also deliver a ‘dovish’ message boosting expectations
for further reductions. This traditionally helped gold prices. Similarly, one
could interpret potential news about the end of the government shutdown, which
has already lasted 27 days (we are therefore decidedly closer to its
end).”
Markets are
pricing a 98.3% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at
Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, with another reduction expected in
December. Lower interest rates typically support gold by reducing the
opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and weakening the dollar. The
dollar index showed minimal strength at -0.1%, indicating the precious metal’s
decline stems primarily from reduced safe-haven demand rather than currency
dynamics.
Gold Price Prediction
Technical Targets Point to
$3,830 and $3,270-$3,440 Zone
Based on my
technical projections, the immediate downside target sits at the 50-day
exponential moving average around $3,830, representing
approximately 3.4% further decline from current levels. This moving average has
provided dynamic support during previous pullbacks and would represent the
first meaningful technical test during this correction.
The more
significant support zone stretches from $3,270 to $3,440, the range
of historical highs established from April through August before gold’s final
surge to record levels. This zone coincides with the 200-day exponential moving
average, creating a powerful confluence of technical, psychological, and
historical support. A decline to this range would represent approximately 17%
downside from current $3,963 levels.
However, I
would interpret such a move as a buying opportunity at more attractive prices
rather than a reason for panic. Everything trading above the blue 200 EMA
maintains the definition of an uptrend in classical technical analysis. The
extended period with RSI in overbought territory without visiting oversold
zones suggests a healthy reset would actually strengthen the bull case by
clearing
Clearing
Clearing is a general term that simply means many different things depending on the subject and related industry. Most commonly, this refers to the reciprocal exchange between banks of checks and drafts, and the settlement of the differences, or the total of claims settled at a clearinghouse. In finance and banking, the word clearing has different meanings depending on the more specific business model. Moving checks from the bank where they were deposited to the bank on which they were drawn. Th
Clearing is a general term that simply means many different things depending on the subject and related industry. Most commonly, this refers to the reciprocal exchange between banks of checks and drafts, and the settlement of the differences, or the total of claims settled at a clearinghouse. In finance and banking, the word clearing has different meanings depending on the more specific business model. Moving checks from the bank where they were deposited to the bank on which they were drawn. Th
Read this Term excessive positioning and allowing fresh accumulation.
Bullish Gold Price
Forecasts
While
gold’s near-term decline has captured headlines, not everybody believes the
precious metal’s bull market has ended. Major financial institutions released
updated forecasts last week maintaining strongly bullish outlooks for 2026,
viewing the current correction as a healthy consolidation rather than a trend
reversal.
A Reuters
poll of 39 analysts and traders published Monday showed the median
forecast for 2026 rising to $4,275 per ounce, up sharply from $3,400
projected just three months ago in July. This represents the first time annual
average gold forecasts have exceeded $4,000, reflecting analyst conviction that
structural demand drivers remain intact despite short-term profit-taking.
Major Institution Gold
Price Forecasts Table
|
Institution |
Q4 2025 Target |
2026 Average |
2026 Peak Target |
Long-Term Target |
Date Updated |
|
JP Morgan |
$3,675/oz |
$5,055/oz (Q4 2026) |
— |
$6,000/oz by 2028 |
October 23, 2025 |
|
Goldman Sachs |
— |
— |
$4,900/oz (Dec 2026) |
— |
October 7, 2025 |
|
Morgan Stanley |
— |
$4,400/oz |
— |
— |
October 21, 2025 |
|
Reuters Poll (39 analysts) |
— |
$4,275/oz |
— |
— |
October 27, 2025 |
|
Metals Focus |
— |
$5,000/oz |
— |
— |
October 26, 2025 |
|
Trading Economics |
$4,157/oz |
— |
$4,361/oz (12 months) |
— |
October 27, 2025 |
|
Standard Chartered |
— |
$4,488/oz |
— |
— |
October 13, 2025 |
|
Bank of America |
— |
$4,400/oz |
$5,000/oz (end 2026) |
— |
October 13, 2025 |
JP Morgan
delivered the most bullish update last Thursday, forecasting gold could
average $5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026, underpinned by expectations
that investor interest and central bank purchases will average approximately
566 tons each quarter throughout 2026. Natasha Kaneva, head of Global
Commodities Strategy at JP Morgan, stated: “Gold remains our conviction long
for the year. We see upside as the market enters the Fed rate-cutting
cycle.”
JP Morgan
reaffirmed a long-term price target of $6,000 per ounce by 2028,
urging investors to adopt a multi-year perspective. Gregory Shearer, head of
Base & Precious Metals Strategy, noted that “the anticipated
combination of a Federal Reserve cutting cycle, along with fears of
stagflation, worries about Fed independence, and broader hedging against
currency debasement, bolsters gold’s potential for growth”.
Gold Prices, FAQ
Why is gold falling today?
Gold
dropped below $4,000 (-0.45% to $3,963.53) following Monday’s 3% plunge
triggered by US-China trade framework agreement announced at ASEAN conference
in Malaysia eliminating 100% tariff threat and securing one-year rare earth
export restriction delay, with Treasury Secretary Bessent stating proposed
tariffs “off the table,” reducing safe-haven demand as investors
rotated capital to equities
Equities
Equities can be characterized as stocks or shares in a company that investors can buy or sell. When you buy a stock, you are in essence buying an equity, becoming a partial owner of shares in a specific company or fund.However, equities do not pay a fixed interest rate, and as such are not considered guaranteed income. As such, equity markets are often associated with risk.When a company issues bonds, it’s taking loans from buyers. When a company offers shares, on the other hand, it’s selling pa
Equities can be characterized as stocks or shares in a company that investors can buy or sell. When you buy a stock, you are in essence buying an equity, becoming a partial owner of shares in a specific company or fund.However, equities do not pay a fixed interest rate, and as such are not considered guaranteed income. As such, equity markets are often associated with risk.When a company issues bonds, it’s taking loans from buyers. When a company offers shares, on the other hand, it’s selling pa
Read this Term rallying on Wall Street.
How low can gold prices
go?
According
to my technical analysis, first downside target sits at 50 EMA around $3,830
(3.4% further decline), with main support zone between $3,270-$3,440 (17%
downside) representing April-August historical highs coinciding with 200-day
EMA creating strong reaccumulation confluence, though Trading Economics
maintains Q4 forecast $4,157 and 12-month target $4,361 suggesting correction
not reversal.
Is gold correction over or
just starting?
Gold
experienced largest ETF outflows since May on Friday and first weekly decline
since second week of August following ten-week winning streak (+28% from
$3,400s to $4,380), with Monday’s 3% plunge potentially marking capitulation
though Marek Rogalski (BossaFX) notes futures haven’t retested October 22 lows
at $4,021 and prices remain “above $4,000 barrier” suggesting limited
technical damage thus far.
Should I sell gold now?
No. Despite
9.5% decline from October 19 peak at $4,381, gold remains +42.83% year-to-date
and +49.65% year-over-year, with my technical analysis identifying
$3,270-$3,440 zone (200 EMA confluence) as buying opportunity at attractive
prices rather than panic-selling zone since “everything above blue 200 EMA
is still an uptrend,” while Fed rate cut Wednesday (98.3% probability) and
potential RSI reset to oversold would support buy signals.
Gold price plunged
below the psychologically critical $4,000 level on Monday, losing over 3% after
its steepest single-day decline since 2020, as investors reduced safe-haven
positions following breakthrough progress in US-China trade negotiations.
The
precious metal continues its retreat today (Tuesday), 28 October 2025,, down
another 1% to $3,963.53 per ounce, marking a three-week low and the first
sustained move below $4,000 since the October rally stalled.
In this
article, I explore why the price of gold is going down, conduct a technical
analysis of the XAU/USDT chart, and identify a key support zone, suggesting
that gold may correct by another 17%.
The selloff
accelerated over the weekend as US and Chinese negotiators meeting during the
ASEAN conference in Malaysia hammered out a framework agreement that eliminates
the threat of 100% US tariffs on Chinese goods and secures a one-year delay on
rare earth export restrictions.
Treasury
Secretary Scott Bessent stated the proposed tariffs are “off the
table,” dramatically reducing the geopolitical risk premium that had
propelled gold to record highs above $4,380 just days earlier.
|
Gold |
Data (Oct |
|
Current |
$3,963.53/oz |
|
Daily |
-$18.00 |
|
Monday’s |
-3.0% |
|
Year-High |
$4,381.58/oz |
|
Decline |
-9.5% |
|
Year-to-Date |
+42.83% |
|
Support |
$3,830 (50 |
“Gold
is losing due to decreasing risk regarding international trade, while
simultaneously reacting to recent moves from ETF funds,” Michał Stajniak, Deputy
Chief Analyst at XTB, explained the catalyst for gold’s decline. “During the
ASEAN conference in Malaysia, a meeting between Chinese and American
negotiators produced a working agreement that eliminates the risk of 100%
tariffs on Chinese products and is meant to reduce rare earth export
restrictions from China to the USA.”
How Low Can Gold Go? Technical
Breakdown Below $4,000 Triggers Selloff
According
to my technical analysis, gold is realizing profits after testing historical
maximums around the $4,380 per ounce level, where it remained from October 17
to 19. On October 19, there was a strong single-day correction, the strongest
since 2020, which triggered a wave of selling and ultimately pushed prices
below the psychological threshold of $4,000 per ounce, after gold slid sharply
again on Monday, losing over 3%.
Tuesday’s
session brings a continuation of declines, with gold currently down 1% and
testing the $3,942 level. Where can gold head from here? According to my
forecasts based on technical analysis, the first target level for declines will
be the 50 EMA located currently around the $3,830 level.
The main
technical support, however, remains the zone of historical highs drawn from
April through the end of August, between $3,270 and $3,440 per ounce.
Simultaneously, the 200 EMA falls in this location, creating a strong
reaccumulation zone and confluence of supports. Gold has approximately 17%
downside to the lower boundary of this range from current levels.
And
although this would be a strong correction that we haven’t seen in a long time,
I would use this as an opportunity to buy at more attractive prices, rather
than as a reason to panic. Everything above the blue 200 EMA is still an
uptrend.
How low can gold price go now? Source: Tradingview.com
Such a
decline would also allow the RSI indicator to reset, which has been moving in
the overbought zone for a long time and hasn’t been in the oversold zone for
many long months, which would support a buy signal in the range I’ve marked in
green on the chart.
ETF Outflows Amplify
Profit-Taking Pressure
Stajniak
highlighted the role of institutional flows in accelerating the decline:
“Friday also saw the largest gold sales on the market among ETF funds
since May. Last week also brought the first weekly decline since the second
week of August.” The combination of reducing geopolitical risk premiums
and institutional profit-taking after gold’s extended rally to record highs
created powerful selling pressure that overwhelmed traditional support levels.
However, Marek
Rogalski, Chief FX Analyst at BossaFX, noted that the technical damage remains
limited thus far: “Nevertheless, declines in precious metal futures are
not that large, the market has not retested the lows from October 22 at $4,021.
At the same time, we remain above the $4,000 barrier.”
This
suggests the correction may represent healthy profit-taking rather than a
fundamental reversal of gold’s long-term bull market.
In the
coming days, an interesting topic for gold will be the Fed’s announcement on
Wednesday, according to Rogalski. “The rate cut is certain, and the
Reserve will most likely also deliver a ‘dovish’ message boosting expectations
for further reductions. This traditionally helped gold prices. Similarly, one
could interpret potential news about the end of the government shutdown, which
has already lasted 27 days (we are therefore decidedly closer to its
end).”
Markets are
pricing a 98.3% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at
Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, with another reduction expected in
December. Lower interest rates typically support gold by reducing the
opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and weakening the dollar. The
dollar index showed minimal strength at -0.1%, indicating the precious metal’s
decline stems primarily from reduced safe-haven demand rather than currency
dynamics.
Gold Price Prediction
Technical Targets Point to
$3,830 and $3,270-$3,440 Zone
Based on my
technical projections, the immediate downside target sits at the 50-day
exponential moving average around $3,830, representing
approximately 3.4% further decline from current levels. This moving average has
provided dynamic support during previous pullbacks and would represent the
first meaningful technical test during this correction.
The more
significant support zone stretches from $3,270 to $3,440, the range
of historical highs established from April through August before gold’s final
surge to record levels. This zone coincides with the 200-day exponential moving
average, creating a powerful confluence of technical, psychological, and
historical support. A decline to this range would represent approximately 17%
downside from current $3,963 levels.
However, I
would interpret such a move as a buying opportunity at more attractive prices
rather than a reason for panic. Everything trading above the blue 200 EMA
maintains the definition of an uptrend in classical technical analysis. The
extended period with RSI in overbought territory without visiting oversold
zones suggests a healthy reset would actually strengthen the bull case by
clearing
Clearing
Clearing is a general term that simply means many different things depending on the subject and related industry. Most commonly, this refers to the reciprocal exchange between banks of checks and drafts, and the settlement of the differences, or the total of claims settled at a clearinghouse. In finance and banking, the word clearing has different meanings depending on the more specific business model. Moving checks from the bank where they were deposited to the bank on which they were drawn. Th
Clearing is a general term that simply means many different things depending on the subject and related industry. Most commonly, this refers to the reciprocal exchange between banks of checks and drafts, and the settlement of the differences, or the total of claims settled at a clearinghouse. In finance and banking, the word clearing has different meanings depending on the more specific business model. Moving checks from the bank where they were deposited to the bank on which they were drawn. Th
Read this Term excessive positioning and allowing fresh accumulation.
Bullish Gold Price
Forecasts
While
gold’s near-term decline has captured headlines, not everybody believes the
precious metal’s bull market has ended. Major financial institutions released
updated forecasts last week maintaining strongly bullish outlooks for 2026,
viewing the current correction as a healthy consolidation rather than a trend
reversal.
A Reuters
poll of 39 analysts and traders published Monday showed the median
forecast for 2026 rising to $4,275 per ounce, up sharply from $3,400
projected just three months ago in July. This represents the first time annual
average gold forecasts have exceeded $4,000, reflecting analyst conviction that
structural demand drivers remain intact despite short-term profit-taking.
Major Institution Gold
Price Forecasts Table
|
Institution |
Q4 2025 Target |
2026 Average |
2026 Peak Target |
Long-Term Target |
Date Updated |
|
JP Morgan |
$3,675/oz |
$5,055/oz (Q4 2026) |
— |
$6,000/oz by 2028 |
October 23, 2025 |
|
Goldman Sachs |
— |
— |
$4,900/oz (Dec 2026) |
— |
October 7, 2025 |
|
Morgan Stanley |
— |
$4,400/oz |
— |
— |
October 21, 2025 |
|
Reuters Poll (39 analysts) |
— |
$4,275/oz |
— |
— |
October 27, 2025 |
|
Metals Focus |
— |
$5,000/oz |
— |
— |
October 26, 2025 |
|
Trading Economics |
$4,157/oz |
— |
$4,361/oz (12 months) |
— |
October 27, 2025 |
|
Standard Chartered |
— |
$4,488/oz |
— |
— |
October 13, 2025 |
|
Bank of America |
— |
$4,400/oz |
$5,000/oz (end 2026) |
— |
October 13, 2025 |
JP Morgan
delivered the most bullish update last Thursday, forecasting gold could
average $5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026, underpinned by expectations
that investor interest and central bank purchases will average approximately
566 tons each quarter throughout 2026. Natasha Kaneva, head of Global
Commodities Strategy at JP Morgan, stated: “Gold remains our conviction long
for the year. We see upside as the market enters the Fed rate-cutting
cycle.”
JP Morgan
reaffirmed a long-term price target of $6,000 per ounce by 2028,
urging investors to adopt a multi-year perspective. Gregory Shearer, head of
Base & Precious Metals Strategy, noted that “the anticipated
combination of a Federal Reserve cutting cycle, along with fears of
stagflation, worries about Fed independence, and broader hedging against
currency debasement, bolsters gold’s potential for growth”.
Gold Prices, FAQ
Why is gold falling today?
Gold
dropped below $4,000 (-0.45% to $3,963.53) following Monday’s 3% plunge
triggered by US-China trade framework agreement announced at ASEAN conference
in Malaysia eliminating 100% tariff threat and securing one-year rare earth
export restriction delay, with Treasury Secretary Bessent stating proposed
tariffs “off the table,” reducing safe-haven demand as investors
rotated capital to equities
Equities
Equities can be characterized as stocks or shares in a company that investors can buy or sell. When you buy a stock, you are in essence buying an equity, becoming a partial owner of shares in a specific company or fund.However, equities do not pay a fixed interest rate, and as such are not considered guaranteed income. As such, equity markets are often associated with risk.When a company issues bonds, it’s taking loans from buyers. When a company offers shares, on the other hand, it’s selling pa
Equities can be characterized as stocks or shares in a company that investors can buy or sell. When you buy a stock, you are in essence buying an equity, becoming a partial owner of shares in a specific company or fund.However, equities do not pay a fixed interest rate, and as such are not considered guaranteed income. As such, equity markets are often associated with risk.When a company issues bonds, it’s taking loans from buyers. When a company offers shares, on the other hand, it’s selling pa
Read this Term rallying on Wall Street.
How low can gold prices
go?
According
to my technical analysis, first downside target sits at 50 EMA around $3,830
(3.4% further decline), with main support zone between $3,270-$3,440 (17%
downside) representing April-August historical highs coinciding with 200-day
EMA creating strong reaccumulation confluence, though Trading Economics
maintains Q4 forecast $4,157 and 12-month target $4,361 suggesting correction
not reversal.
Is gold correction over or
just starting?
Gold
experienced largest ETF outflows since May on Friday and first weekly decline
since second week of August following ten-week winning streak (+28% from
$3,400s to $4,380), with Monday’s 3% plunge potentially marking capitulation
though Marek Rogalski (BossaFX) notes futures haven’t retested October 22 lows
at $4,021 and prices remain “above $4,000 barrier” suggesting limited
technical damage thus far.
Should I sell gold now?
No. Despite
9.5% decline from October 19 peak at $4,381, gold remains +42.83% year-to-date
and +49.65% year-over-year, with my technical analysis identifying
$3,270-$3,440 zone (200 EMA confluence) as buying opportunity at attractive
prices rather than panic-selling zone since “everything above blue 200 EMA
is still an uptrend,” while Fed rate cut Wednesday (98.3% probability) and
potential RSI reset to oversold would support buy signals.
Images are for reference only.Images and contents gathered automatic from google or 3rd party sources.All rights on the images and contents are with their legal original owners.
