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Tajikistan has made notable strides in reducing poverty over the past decade, but sustaining this progress will require a shift away from reliance on labor migration and remittances, according to a new World Bank report.
The Poverty and Equity Assessment in Tajikistan notes that the share of people living in poverty fell from 56 percent in 2010 to around 20 percent in 2024. During the same period, the middle class expanded from 8 percent to 33 percent of the population, with 35 percent of households joining its ranks between 2021 and 2023. However, these gains have largely been driven by remittances, which consistently account for more than 30 percent of GDP, rather than domestic job creation.
Job Creation Remains Weak
Employment generation, however, remains limited. As of 2022, only 40 percent of the working-age population was employed, the lowest rate in the region, while female labor force participation stood at just 21 percent.
Inequality has also worsened. The Gini coefficient rose from 32 to 38 between 2021 and 2023, with rural and remote areas most affected due to poor infrastructure and weak market access.
Education poses an additional constraint. In 2023, 31 percent of children were not attending school, especially at higher grade levels. Contributing factors include financial hardship, distance to schools, and low parental education. Many university graduates either take low-paid jobs or emigrate.
World Bank Recommendations
The World Bank urges Tajikistan to transition from a remittance-dependent model to one grounded in domestic employment and economic resilience. Key recommendations include:
- modernizing agriculture with climate-resilient technologies;
- promoting labor-intensive private sector growth, particularly in agricultural processing, services, and small enterprises;
- expanding access to education, vocational training, and digital infrastructure, especially in rural areas;
- strengthening targeted social support for vulnerable households.
“Tajikistan’s progress in poverty reduction is impressive, but sustaining and deepening these gains requires a rebalancing of priorities,” said Wei Winnie Wang, the World Bank’s Acting Country Manager in Tajikistan.
She emphasized that improving domestic job creation, reducing spatial inequality, and investing in human capital would help build a more inclusive and sustainable economy.
Government Response
Tajikistan’s Ministry of Economic Development and Trade acknowledged that the report’s findings align with national development priorities. Deputy Minister Ahliddin Nuriddinzoda highlighted the role of the Poverty and Middle Class Expansion Council, established with World Bank support, as a platform for monitoring poverty and shaping related policy.
According to the ministry, the World Bank’s current portfolio in Tajikistan includes 26 projects worth $1.9 billion, focused on infrastructure, human capital, and institutional reforms. The International Finance Corporation has also invested more than $70 million in the private sector.
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