WTO revises upwards global trade forecast to 1.7 pc for 2023
The growth in world trade is expected to grow by a meagre 1.7 per cent in 2023 due to global uncertainties, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) said on Wednesday. The 1.7 per cent forecast is up from the previous estimate of 1 per cent last October.
For 2024, the WTO in its forecast said, the trade growth should rebound to 3.2 per cent.
However, it said, this estimate is more uncertain than usual due to the presence of substantial downside risks, including geopolitical tensions, food supply shocks and the possibility of unforeseen fallout from monetary tightening.
“Global trade growth in 2023 is still expected to be subpar despite a slight upgrade to GDP projections since last fall.
“Weighed down by the effects of the war in Ukraine, stubbornly high inflation, tighter monetary policy and financial market uncertainty, the volume of world merchandise trade is expected to grow by 1.7 per cent this year, following 2.7 per cent growth in 2022,” the WTO said in a statement.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said that trade continues to be a force for resilience in the global economy, but it will remain under pressure from external factors in 2023.
“This makes it even more important for governments to avoid trade fragmentation and refrain from introducing obstacles to trade,” she said. The 2.7 per cent increase in world trade volume in 2022 was weaker than the WTO’s October 2022 forecast of 3.5 per cent.
Revision of forecast from 1 per cent to 1.7 per cent for 2023 is due to factors such as relaxation of COVID-19 pandemic controls in China, which is expected to unleash pent-up consumer demand in the country, in turn boosting international trade, it added.
Images are for reference only.Images and contents gathered automatic from google or 3rd party sources.All rights on the images and contents are with their legal original owners.