Zimbabwe trade deficit drops 94.5% in July

Zimbabwe’s external trade position saw a remarkable turnaround in July 2025, with the nation’s goods trade deficit plunging by 94.5 percent to just US$8.7 million, according to the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (Zimstat). The sharp improvement comes after a deficit of US$158.6 million in June, largely driven by a significant surge in exports.

Zimstat reported that exports in July amounted to US$877.5 million, a 21.3 percent increase from June’s US$723.5 million. The export boom was largely supported by a handful of key commodities, with semi-manufactured gold, nickel mattes, and tobacco accounting for more than 75 percent of total export value. Semi-manufactured gold alone represented over half of exports at 51 percent, while nickel mattes and tobacco contributed 15.9 percent and 8.1 percent, respectively.

Imports, while still substantial, increased only marginally, standing at US$886.2 million, up 0.5 percent from June’s US$882.1 million. The main imported products included mineral fuels, mineral oils, machinery, mechanical appliances, and vehicles.

The report also highlighted Zimbabwe’s major trading partners. The United Arab Emirates emerged as the top destination for exports, receiving 51.6 percent of all goods, largely due to semi-manufactured gold. South Africa and China were the second and third largest export markets. On the import side, South Africa remained the largest source of goods, supplying 35 percent, followed by China, Bahrain, and the Bahamas.

Regional trade within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) saw nickel mattes dominate exports, while the European Union primarily received tobacco and ferro-chromium. Imports from SADC mainly consisted of machinery and mineral fuels, with the EU supplying pharmaceutical products and mechanical appliances.

Economists have highlighted the broader significance of the improved trade balance. Financial economist Malone Gwadu said the increase in exports reflects Zimbabwe’s peak production season, particularly in tobacco, and rising mineral export prices. He noted that the relatively modest rise in imports demonstrates a higher marginal propensity to export, which is a positive economic signal.

Dr. Persistence Gwanyanya emphasized that the improved trade balance is critical for currency stability, as it enhances export surrender and strengthens the interbank market. He added that a stronger trade balance provides more insight into Zimbabwe’s external economic position than current account or balance of payments figures alone.

Financial analyst Gladys Mutsopotsi-Shumbambiri described the narrowing deficit as a promising development, noting that the surge in exports is export-driven rather than due to suppressed import demand. She cautioned, however, that reliance on a few primary commodities exposes Zimbabwe to price volatility. She stressed the need to diversify exports, add value through beneficiation, and expand non-traditional sectors such as agricultural value chains and manufactured goods.

“The gains from this improvement can form the foundation for sustainable trade growth and improved economic resilience,” Mutsopotsi-Shumbambiri said, urging the strategic use of increased export earnings to enhance productivity, retool industry, and support infrastructure.

The July trade figures mark a significant milestone for Zimbabwe’s external sector, offering hope for strengthened foreign currency inflows and a more balanced international trade outlook.

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