Analysis: Xi tempers expectations on economic goals but could act ‘earlier’, more ‘decisively’ in 2025

SINGAPORE: On a recent visit to northwestern Lanzhou city, located along the banks of the Yellow River, a particular remark by Chinese President Xi Jinping to local officials caught the attention of overseas China watchers – and the comment wasn’t about ecological conservation.

“Strive to achieve the full-year economic and social development goals,” Mr Xi reportedly said, marking a slight departure from the firm command he made just months earlier.

Following China’s economic reform-focused Third Plenum meeting held in July, his message then was stronger and clearer – that targets must be achieved “unwaveringly”.

This shift in tone, however “subtle”, did not go unnoticed among observers. 

“Where normally we expect to see phrases such as ‘fully committed’ or ‘unwavering,’ (Mr Xi’s use of) the word ‘strive’ emphasises the effort and not the outcome,” wrote Mr John Browning, managing director of BANDS Financial, a Hong Kong-based commodity and financial futures broker, in his newsletter.

Others say it wasn’t just a change in rhetoric. While Beijing remains officially committed to its 5 per cent growth target for 2024, analysts who spoke to CNA said the different tune was a reflection of Mr Xi’s tacit acknowledgment of complex challenges now confronting China’s economy, and is trying to temper expectations. 

“Chinese officials are often very deliberate in their wording,” noted Mr Matteo Giovannini, a senior finance manager at the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and non-resident associate fellow at the Center for China and Globalization, adding that the linguistic change could be “a sign that economic pressures in China are mounting, and that the leadership is managing expectations.”

Mr Xi’s shift from a “more resolute ‘unwaveringly’ to somewhat more cautious ‘strive to accomplish’ suggests a recognition (from him) of the difficulties in achieving China’s 2024 growth targets but not a full admission that the target is unattainable,” said Mr Giovannini.

He adds: “While the change in language seems subtle, in the context of Chinese political discourse, even slight variations in phrasing can signal broader intentions.”

Analysts told CNA it’s a possible indication that Beijing is re-evaluating its approach, which could pave the way for stronger policy interventions in the coming year.  

A SHIFT IN TONE: FROM “UNWAVERING” TO “STRIVING”

Although relatively uncommon, the expression has been used on various occasions over the years.

In February 2020, when the pandemic weighed heavily on the economy and China broke with more than a quarter-century tradition by not issuing an economic growth target for the year, Mr Xi urged officials to “strive to achieve the goals and tasks for economic and social development.” 

He repeated it in July 2022 after a quarterly Politburo’s economic meeting, telling officials to “strive to achieve the best results possible”. 
 
Last year he said it again during the central economic work conference in December: “Strive to achieve the various targets and tasks of economic and social development.”

Despite Mr Xi’s softer tone, some experts believe it might not represent a dramatic change in policy. 

Ms Guo Shan, partner at Hutong Research, told CNA that while China’s economic landscape has altered, top leaders seem to have already accepted the reality – that the growth target is unlikely to be met.

“This is likely due to the economy’s structural soundness, with auto sales improving, employment stabilising, and high-tech industries outperforming,” Ms Guo said. “The leadership appears more focused on addressing long-term structural issues (rather) than hitting an exact GDP figure.”

Last Saturday (Sep 14), China’s National Bureau of Statistics released its economic data for August, with most indicators falling short of expectations. 

Retail sales, industrial value added, and year-to-date fixed-asset investment (FAI) grew by 2.1 per cent, 4.5 per cent, and 3.4 per cent year-on-year, respectively – each lower than in July, even with recent policy support. 

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