Peak season runs long as AI demand and port congestion keep capacity tight

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Peak season runs long as AI demand and port congestion keep capacity tight
Peak season runs long as AI demand and port congestion keep capacity tight
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Original Coverage & Source Attribution: www.dcvelocity.com

Peak season is running longer than expected in global freight markets, due to a convergence of factors—global manufacturing reaches a three-month high while typhoon backlogs, Golden Week capacity cuts, and returning Suez services split freight trends across major lanes—according to a monthly report from Taiwan-based third-party logistics provider (3PL) Dimerco.

Demand driven by AI, semiconductor, and year-end retail continue to support air and ocean volumes, while typhoon backlogs, port congestion, and short-notice capacity cuts are keeping space tight across several key Asian origins. At the same time, Asia-Europe ocean rates are moving in the opposite direction as more services return through the Suez Canal, Dimerco Express Group said in its “October 2026 Asia Pacific Freight Report.”

Airfreight remains tight across several Northeast Asian markets, as Taiwan continues to see strong demand for AI servers, semiconductors, high-performance computing equipment and electronic components, keeping rates under upward pressure to the U.S. and across intra-Asia lanes.

Conditions in China are more mixed. Pre-holiday and e-commerce activity is tightening some regional routes, while US and Europe capacity remains more balanced in several origins. Dimerco expects clearer tariff direction and persistent ocean congestion to potentially push more cargo into air as Q4 progresses.

“Bookings look quiet right now, but that’s the calm before the door opens. Once held-back China-U.S. cargo releases and ocean congestion pushes shippers into air, the space will face some constraints,” said Kathy Liu, VP, Global Sales and Marketing at Dimerco Express Group.

Ocean freight is being shaped as much by supply disruption as by demand. Lingering typhoon delays, the Mid-Autumn Festival and Golden Week are pushing vessel schedule disruption into October, while demand has not slowed as quickly as expected. Retail and e-commerce inventory building is keeping US imports elevated, and selective blank sailings are maintaining high transpacific utilization and firm-to-rising rates.

The impact is particularly visible in China. Shanghai is expected to remain heavily congested into mid-to-late October, with berthing waits above five days and on-time performance falling sharply. Yantian is also facing container availability pressure as intake restrictions limit empty releases.

“Everyone expected October to mark the start of the slowdown, but the cargo hasn’t stopped and the overflow is still rolling forward,” said Ted Chen, Director, Ocean Freight, Global Sales and Marketing at Dimerco Express Group. “With carriers blanking sailings at short notice, the real risk isn’t port congestion, it’s space disappearing before you’ve booked it.”

In terms of practical recommendations to cope with those issues, Dimerco recommends booking early on high-demand corridors, particularly from Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan and South Korea. Ocean shipments should generally be secured one to two weeks ahead for intra-Asia movements and two to three weeks ahead for long-haul routes.

Shippers should also keep alternative sailings available around Golden Week, build additional buffer time for weather and congestion, and consider China-Europe rail where appropriate. Transit times currently range from approximately 15 to 24 days on major routes, the report said.