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India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has positioned himself as a potential mediator in the Ukraine conflict, aiming to promote a negotiated resolution while safeguarding India’s national interests. The complex global dynamics at play-Russia’s deep-rooted ties with India, the West’s desire to weaken those ties, and the broader geopolitical implications of the Ukraine war-create a difficult balancing act for New Delhi. As India emerges as a major player on the world stage, it finds itself in a unique position to potentially influence the outcome of the conflict, even as the challenges of diplomacy grow more intricate.
India, with a population of 1.4 billion people, is in a critical stage of its economic development. With ambitions to become the third-largest economy by the end of the decade, India needs a peaceful international environment to sustain its growth trajectory. The Ukraine conflict, with its global ripple effects, has created uncertainty in global markets, energy prices, and food security, all of which impact India. New Delhi, therefore, has a vested interest in seeking an end to the conflict that stabilizes the international order.
At the same time, India’s historical ties with Russia remain a cornerstone of its foreign policy. For decades, Russia has been a reliable partner, particularly in the defense sector. Approximately 60-70 percent of India’s military equipment is of Russian origin, underscoring the strategic importance of maintaining robust relations with Moscow. However, as India deepens its ties with the United States and the European Union-both crucial partners for trade, technology, and investment-balancing these relationships becomes a diplomatic challenge.
Russia, for its part, does not interfere with India’s growing relations with the West. However, the US and EU have consistently pressured India to reduce its ties with Moscow, especially after the invasion of Ukraine. American sanctions on Russia have already impacted India’s ability to engage fully with Russia, particularly in areas like finance and defense procurement.
India’s foreign policy has long been guided by the principle of ‘vishwabandhu’-friendship with all nations. Yet, the global situation is increasingly resembling a revived Cold War, with the West and Russia locked in opposing blocs. This poses a dilemma for India, which seeks to preserve and even strengthen its ties with Russia while expanding its cooperation with the West. Navigating this geopolitical minefield has become an increasingly difficult task for India’s leadership.
India understands the deep complexities of the Ukraine conflict. The war is not just a territorial dispute; it is also about the future security architecture of Europe. For Ukraine, issues like territorial integrity and potential NATO membership are non-negotiable, while for Russia, Ukraine’s NATO membership is an existential threat. The conflict has become a broader proxy war between Russia and the West, with the US, NATO, and the EU firmly backing Ukraine, providing military aid and financial support. The West is determined not to let Russia win, as this would jeopardize the security of Europe and potentially embolden Russia further.
India has taken a nuanced position on the war. While it has participated in several United Nations resolutions that emphasize respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, and international law, New Delhi has stopped short of outright condemning Russia. India’s approach is pragmatic -it recognizes that any resolution to the conflict will likely require some territorial concessions, as well as a rethinking of Ukraine’s NATO ambitions. A security arrangement outside of NATO may be necessary to find common ground between the opposing parties.
Modi has consistently expressed India’s readiness to contribute to a peace process in Ukraine. During his summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in July 2023, Modi reiterated India’s commitment to promoting peace in any possible way. This message was reinforced during Modi’s visit to Kiev in August 2023, which was seen as an attempt to broaden India’s diplomatic space. While Zelensky pressed Modi to endorse Ukraine’s 10-point peace plan and join the communique issued after the Peace Summit in Switzerland, India demurred. Modi emphasized that Zelensky’s plan was not the only one on the table and that any peace process needed to involve all stakeholders.
By making the difficult trip to Ukraine, Modi managed to shift India’s stance from a perceived pro-Russian position to a more neutral one. This diplomatic maneuver created more room for India to navigate Western pressures while maintaining its ties with Russia.
Following Modi’s visit to Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged India’s peace efforts, praising countries like China, Brazil, and India for their genuine attempts to resolve the conflict. Putin noted that while Russia was open to negotiations, Zelensky’s 10-point peace plan was not acceptable. He referred to the preliminary agreement reached between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators in Istanbul in March 2022, suggesting that this could serve as the basis for renewed talks.
Putin’s remarks highlight Russia’s consistent position: any peace talks must acknowledge the territorial changes that have occurred and rule out Ukraine’s NATO membership. While this stance is unlikely to be accepted by Ukraine or the West, it allows Russia to claim that it is not the intransigent party, thus preserving its relationships with countries in the Global South, which have suffered from the war’s collateral consequences.
India’s potential role as a mediator has gained attention in the West. The United States and the European Union have encouraged Modi to leverage his close relationship with Putin to influence Moscow. They believe that if Modi takes on a more active role, it cannot be based solely on Russia’s position and would need to accommodate Ukraine’s core concerns. However, this raises the possibility of creating tension in India-Russia relations, especially if New Delhi appears to be leaning too far toward the West’s narrative.
The West has already tried to interpret Modi’s statements-including his comment to Putin in Uzbekistan in 2022 that “this is not an era of war”-as a veiled criticism of Russia. However, these interpretations have not strained India-Russia ties, with both sides continuing to engage constructively. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is the latest Western leader to encourage Modi to play a role in mediating the conflict. Yet, Meloni’s suggestion raises questions about the West’s own role in peace efforts. If Italy and other Western powers are genuinely interested in peace, why not engage directly with Russia?
In the midst of these diplomatic overtures, Western intelligence agencies have maintained a hardline stance. The CIA and UK’s Secret Intelligence Service jointly penned an op-ed in the Financial Times, stating that “staying the course” in Ukraine was crucial. They reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Ukraine’s military efforts, underscoring the West’s reluctance to entertain peace initiatives at this stage.
The scope of India’s role as a peace broker remains uncertain. While Modi has the diplomatic channels to communicate with both Putin and Zelensky, and enjoys constructive relations with the United States, no concrete mediation plans have emerged. The situation on the ground in Ukraine remains fluid, with both military and political developments shaping the prospects for peace.
For India, the challenge is to maintain its diplomatic balancing act, preserving its strategic autonomy while managing the expectations of both Russia and the West. As the conflict drags on, New Delhi will continue to navigate this delicate path, emphasizing its readiness to contribute to peace while safeguarding its own national interests.
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