The NATO Quantum Technology Roadmap and its Global Implications

In September 2026, NATO released its Quantum Technology Roadmap, which identifies the increasing importance of quantum technology-enabled defence and security applications and lays out clear pathways for operational deployment. This comes as a timely development, given the rising Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) of quantum technologies (QTs), particularly quantum sensing, and their imminent deployment in defence applications such as quantum navigation systems.

The NATO Roadmap coincides with a growing number of initiatives in the United States (US), China, the European Union (EU), Australia, and India, aimed at achieving similar goals in QT deployment.

Moreover, the NATO Roadmap coincides with a growing number of initiatives in the United States (US), China, the European Union (EU), Australia, and India, aimed at achieving similar goals in QT deployment. Together, these initiatives signal a decisive shift towards identifying viable defence use cases and deploying them expeditiously. While this is likely partly driven by the critical role played by emerging technologies in the ongoing global conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, it also reflects the maturation of a technology that is approaching practical applicability. Consequently, effective and optimal integration of QTs into national defence frameworks constitutes a prudent strategy for any nation, as the NATO Roadmap illustrates. This is particularly relevant for the Global South, which risks being excluded from access to these technologies because of escalating global export control measures.

Defence Applications of Quantum Technology

Although QTs do not currently provide novel kinetic defence capabilities, they substantially augment existing non-kinetic capabilities and could create entirely new ones through three primary avenues: quantum computing, quantum communication and quantum sensing. Quantum computing can enhance data processing, simulation, modelling and optimisation capabilities. These can have significant implications for military planning, decision-making and wargaming.

Quantum communication can provide secure and tamper-resistant data transfer through quantum key distribution (QKD) links and networks, while post-quantum cryptography (PQC) algorithms can ensure cryptographic security against quantum computing-enabled cyberattacks. Quantum sensing can provide enhanced, global navigation satellite system (GNSS)-independent position, navigation and timing (PNT) systems, improved surveillance and signals intelligence (SIGINT) capabilities, augmented chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) applications, as well as novel radar and imaging applications.

Although QTs do not currently provide novel kinetic defence capabilities, they substantially augment existing non-kinetic capabilities and could create entirely new ones through three primary avenues: quantum computing, quantum communication and quantum sensing.

In terms of TRLs, although quantum computing and QKD are relatively less developed, quantum sensing ranks high, with multiple existing prototypes, particularly for quantum inertial navigation systems, which are closest to operational deployment. In contrast, PQC standards are already well established, owing to the efforts of organisations such as the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).

The Provisions of the NATO Roadmap

Released on 29 September 2026, the NATO QT Roadmap serves as a follow-up to its QT Strategy, instituted in November 2023, with the primary aim of operationalising the latter. It identifies QT as “an element of strategic competition,” with the express purpose of identifying, honing and deploying defence use cases while building defence capabilities against quantum-enabled threats. To achieve this, the roadmap envisions cooperation among multiple existing NATO entities and mechanisms, such as the NATO Transatlantic Quantum Community (TQC), the NATO Science and Technology Organisation (STO), Allied Command Transformation (ACT), the Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA), and the NATO Innovation Fund (NIF).

The roadmap identifies the three primary avenues of QT as focal areas for testing and development: quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum sensing, as well as their intersections with emerging technologies.

The roadmap identifies the three primary avenues of QT as focal areas for testing and development: quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum sensing, as well as their intersections with emerging technologies such as AI, space, next-generation communication networks, and biotechnology. To this end, it delineates clear Lines of Effort (LoEs), along with associated timelines, across five primary activities, as listed in the table below.

Table 1: NATO Quantum Technology Roadmap Lines of Effort

Source: NATO Quantum Technology Roadmap (2026)

Other Global QT Defence Strategies

From a global perspective, the NATO QT Roadmap is far from an isolated initiative aimed at QT-enabled defence deployment. It comes alongside several national efforts with similar objectives. The United States (US) has declared quantum computing a priority under its National Security Strategy 2025, while the National Security Science and Technology Strategy 2026 categorises PQC migration as a strategic imperative. In addition, the Department of War (DoW) released its Post Quantum Cryptography Strategy in April 2026, mandating that “all DoW systems must support PQC or be phased out” by 31 December 2030.

In the European Union (EU), the European Defence Fund (EDF) supports the development of QT defence use cases such as PNT systems, atomic clocks, quantum imaging and radar, optronics and secure communication. It has already developed a quantum sensor network designed to enhance warfare precision as part of the QuantaQuest project and is currently implementing follow-up projects including ADEQUADE, Q-SING and SMIEQ, all of which are expected to deliver results in 2026-27.

In its 15th Five-Year Plan, approved in March 2026, China designated QT as one of seven emerging technologies that will be the “new drivers of economic growth,” marking a decided shift from research and development (R&D) towards commercialisation, particularly in quantum computing and quantum communication networks. In addition, in January 2026, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) stated that it was developing and testing more than 10 experimental quantum cyber warfare tools in a project led by the National University of Defence Technology. China has also identified QT as a priority frontier field under its 2030 Cyber Industry Plan, released in August 2026, which could have considerable implications for QT deployment from a national security perspective.

Although the Australian Army released its Army Quantum Technology Roadmap in 2021, Australia has only recently prioritised QT, under its 2026 National Defence Strategy and its 2026 Defence Innovation, Science and Technology Strategy. The latter designates QT as one of six defence priorities. Moreover, QT has been declared a core focal point under AUKUS Pillar 2, with the AUKUS Quantum Arrangement (AQuA) serving as a catalyst for investment in QT-enabled military capabilities, initially focusing on PNT systems.

In India, the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) released the Military Quantum Mission Policy Framework in February 2026, marking the country’s first major attempt to establish a long-term strategic vision for QT integration and deployment across its armed services. The Ministry of Defence has also been funding startups developing QT defence use cases under its Innovations for Defence Excellence (iDEX) initiative.

Key Drivers of the Global Push Towards QT Deployment  

While these global initiatives are driven by many factors, two stand out. First, recent years have seen novel and unprecedented developments in QT. For example, in March 2026, both  Google and Caltech proposed promising quantum error correction schemes that could substantially lower the resource requirements for codebreaking using quantum computers. In QKD, several countries have been exploring many potential use cases in both terrestrial and space-based links. Quantum sensing, however, has witnessed the most progress in actual deployment, with multiple countries including the US, United Kingdom (UK) and Australia having already developed quantum navigation systems and next-generation atomic clock prototypes. Ruggedisation and size, weight, power and cost (SWaP-C) requirements are the primary barriers to deployment at present.

Second, the recent conflicts in Ukraine and Iran have highlighted the importance of developing novel defence capabilities in key areas such as cybersecurity, SIGINT and PNT systems, which could dictate the future of the battlefield. In this context, the significant advantages of adopting emerging technologies like QT early could give the nations that do so a decisive military edge.

Integrating QT into national defence frameworks must become a global strategic priority, particularly for the Global South, which risks being excluded from these technologies without robust domestic strategies and capabilities.

Of the global initiatives outlined above, the NATO QT Roadmap alone has strict, dedicated timelines, signalling a clear intent for imminent deployment, although most of its initiatives are currently limited to reports and assessments. Other nations and multilaterals, however, are likely to follow suit, thereby creating the environment required for deployment and subsequent commercialisation of QT. The NATO Roadmap could, therefore, prove a prime instigator of QT deployment in the defence and security space.

As the global push to develop QT defence use cases intensifies, it will inevitably be accompanied by techno-nationalist sentiments that seek to suppress competition. Given its dual-use nature, QT already falls under several global export control and arms regulations, a status quo that will likely be exacerbated as the technology continues to evolve and approaches maturity. Consequently, integrating QT into national defence frameworks must become a global strategic priority, particularly for the Global South, which risks being excluded from these technologies without robust domestic strategies and capabilities.

Prateek Tripathi is an Associate Fellow at the Raisina Platforms and Ideas Forum.

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