Original Coverage & Source Attribution: neilpaine.substack.com
Happy Thursday! And as we warned yesterday, October cleared things out in a hurry last night: The Yankees were swept by Tampa Bay, the Padres got finished off by Milwaukee, and the Braves were sent packing by the Dodgers — leaving Los Angeles that much closer with a 43% chance to win it all. We’ll look at how half the remaining playoff field got massacred in a single night below. Plus, Cleveland tries to keep its season alive against the White Sox tonight, and Bucs-Cowboys kicks off Week 5 amid an NFL penalty boom that has already robbed us of a staggering number of touchdowns. Here’s what else we’re watching today:
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. = Elimination game
MLB:
ALDS: Guardians (52%) at White Sox (48%)* – Game 4 (CWS leads 2-1), 8 p.m. (TBS/HBO Max)
World Series title check-in: Dodgers 43% to win
Football:
NFL: Buccaneers (20%) at Cowboys (80%) – 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)
CFB: Sam Houston (17%) at Liberty (83%) – 7 p.m.
CFB: South Florida (29%) at UTSA (71%) – 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Super Bowl check-in: Rams 12% to win NFL title
College Football Playoff check-in: Ohio State 18% to win national title
WNBA:
No games. (Off-day; semifinals resume Oct. 9)
WNBA title check-in: Dream 46% to win
NHL:
Mammoth (54%) at Bruins (46%) – 7 p.m.
Stars (53%) at Sabres (47%) – 7 p.m.
Maple Leafs (39%) at Golden Knights (61%) – 10 p.m.
Stanley Cup check-in: Avalanche 13% to win
Soccer:
Brazilian Série A: Santos (22%) vs. Flamengo (55%) – 6:30 p.m.
Champions League title check-in: FC Barcelona 24% to win
Premier League title check-in: Arsenal FC 63% to win
MLS title check-in: Vancouver Whitecaps FC 25% to win MLS Cup
NWSL title check-in: Gotham FC 27% to win
Golf:
Baycurrent Classic: Round 1 – Yokohama Country Club
NBA:
Preseason action (regular season starts 10/20)
NBA title check-in: Thunder/Spurs 23% to win
October clears the deck
Less than a week ago, MLB’s playoffs seemed to have some new faces entering the fight for playoff supremacy. After surviving a tough wild-card draw with flying colors, the New York Yankees and San Diego Padres looked like they could, respectively, challenge the top-seeded Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers. And though the Atlanta Braves needed a bit more effort to move past the Philadelphia Phillies in Round 1, they still had the star power to put a scare into the powerhouse LA Dodgers.
Or so it seemed. But so much for all of that now! Despite their first-round wins and brand-name pedigrees, the Yankees, Padres and Braves were each dispatched on Wednesday night in what was a sudden massacre for plausible World Series challengers.
The Yankees’ exit to the Rays was the most decisive. After bludgeoning Boston in the Wild Card round, New York’s offense completely disappeared against Tampa Bay, scoring just 5 runs in 3 games, hitting .130 with a .431 OPS and striking out 31 times against 7 walks. They lost 1-0 and 5-2 in Tampa, then saw Anthony Volpe’s would-be tying homer in the Bronx be overturned because of fan interference — which proved decisive in the 4-3 loss. Tampa didn’t exactly mash, either (.599 OPS), but their pitching was so good that it didn’t matter, which is bad news for whoever they play in the ALCS.
San Diego and Atlanta at least made the Brewers and Dodgers work for it a little more. The Padres played Milwaukee close every game and had a few moments (cough, Ty France’s roofball) where things just didn’t break their way. And the Braves genuinely seemed poised to make the NLDS a real series when they were headed back to Atlanta with a 1-1 split and Chris Sale teed up to start Game 3. Of course, the Brewers and Dodgers proved too relentless and ultimately just better, closing out their foes in 4 games each on Wednesday. With that, the hopeful Yankees, Padres and Braves went down with a combined 2-9 record in the Division Series.
The only outstanding bit of second-round business remaining now is in the AL, where the Guardians won 9-3 to keep Wednesday from being a complete elimination-fest. We knew beforehand that series would be a close one, and there’s certainly hope for Cleveland to force a deciding fifth game (which would be on Saturday) with Parker Messick on the mound Thursday. But that game is in Chicago and the White Sox just have to win 1 game before Cleveland wins 2, so the market is still bullish on the Pale Hose.
Looking forward at the market odds, the Dodgers are about 60-40 in their NLCS rematch with the Brewers, while the Rays will be slightly better than that against whoever wins between Chicago and Cleveland. For Milwaukee, the question is simple: Why should believe things will be different after last year’s ugly NLCS Dodger landslide? And for all of baseball, there’s a similar question: Who exactly is supposed to stop the Dodgers now?
Flag football
If it feels like NFL officials have been especially busy lately, well, you’re not imagining things. According to NFL analyst Warren Sharp, Week 4 averaged 17 penalties per game, the most in any NFL week since 2015 — with basically all of the year-over-year increase coming against offenses. (This is the most offensive penalties per game in the first 4 weeks of a season since 2003.) And maybe the most eye-popping result: 17 touchdowns have already been wiped out by penalties through 4 weeks, compared with just 5 at this point last season, 4 in 2024 and an average of 8.3 over the previous decade. So as Tampa Bay and Dallas kick off Week 5 tonight, the big question might not be which team scores first… but whether some flag-throwing zebra lets it count.
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
“The First Batch of Transfer Portal Predictions” by Ray Carpenter
“Rahm out at LIV; was he ever really in?” by Bob Harig
“CFB after 5 weeks: Chip Kelly’s comeback and more” by Brendan Farrell
“Two Carolinas” by Chris Gallo
“Week 4 Recap: Yes All Refs – On inevitability, short kings, and accountability.” by Elana DeSantis
“5 Statistics That Will Change The Way You Play Golf” by Tour Swings Tommy
Next on deck…
Friday (10/9)
CFB: Florida State at Louisville
CFB: Iowa at Washington
MLB Playoffs: No games.
WNBA Playoffs: Dream at Liberty, Semifinals Game 3
WNBA Playoffs: Valkyries at Aces, Semifinals Game 3
NHL: Rangers at Capitals
UEFA Nations League: Italy vs. Belarus
Golf: Baycurrent Classic, Round 2
Saturday (10/10)
CFB: #2 Georgia at #6 Alabama
CFB: #21 UCLA at #13 Oregon
CFB: #1 Texas vs. Oklahoma
CFB: #7 Indiana vs. Nebraska
MLB Playoffs: White Sox at Guardians, ALDS Game 5 (if necessary)
WNBA Playoffs: No games. (Off-day)
NHL: Maple Leafs at Avalanche
Premier League: Tottenham Hotspur at Manchester United
Golf: Baycurrent Classic, Round 3
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
Sunday (10/11)
NFL: Eagles at Jaguars
NFL: Bears at Packers
NFL: 49ers at Seahawks
NFL: Ravens at Falcons
MLB Playoffs: NLCS Game 1: Dodgers at Brewers
WNBA Playoffs: Dream at Liberty, Semifinals Game 4 (if necessary)
WNBA Playoffs: Valkyries at Aces, Semifinals Game 4 (if necessary)
NHL: Canucks at Rangers – 1994 Stanley Cup Final rematch
UEFA Nations League: Greece vs. Netherlands
Golf: Baycurrent Classic, Final Round
NASCAR: Cup Series: Bank of America 400 at Charlotte
F1: Singapore Grand Prix
Looking ahead
Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.
Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!
All data current as of time of send.
— by Neil Paine
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.
