Original Coverage & Source Attribution: economy.ac
'Immediate counterattack if attacked' NATO warns of tough response to Russian military provocations Increasing military pressure from Russia highlights possibility of armed conflict in Kaliningrad and the three Baltic states From nuclear deterrence exercises to defense budget increases and joint weapons procurement, Europe accelerates rearmament
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is increasing its level of deterrence against Russia. Against the backdrop of growing disturbances caused by Russia’s military provocations, including sabotage and airspace violations across Europe, NATO’s overall vigilance is intensifying daily. Recently, the potential for limited Russian attacks and the rising military tension around Kaliningrad and the Baltic region have come into focus, accelerating Europe’s efforts to strengthen in-region military response capabilities.
NATO expresses intent for direct confrontation with Russia
On the 12th (local time), according to Reuters and Polish media outlet TVP, at a security forum held in Warsaw, Poland, NATO’s top commander for the European Union forces, Alexus Grynkewich, said, ‘If someone is foolish enough to attack us, we will fight,’ and added, ‘We will stop that attack and will not allow it to achieve whatever its objective may be.’ He went on to say that if necessary, large-scale retaliation would accompany this process, adding, ‘This includes not only the attacking units but everything that supports, maintains, and controls those units.’
Commander Grynkewich also emphasized, ‘I do not believe a conflict is imminent or inevitable,’ but said, ‘Military preparedness in the face of potential threats is required for effective deterrence.’ He asserted, ‘If attacked, we are ready to fight tonight,’ while also stating that ‘the strategy focuses on preventing attacks to avoid a broad strategic defeat, thereby averting larger conflicts and holding the adversary accountable.’ Regarding sabotage activities suspected to be Russian in Europe, he stated, ‘Allies are continuously consulting on how to respond, and it is important to clearly and concisely communicate our red lines to Russia.’
Russia’s military provocations
The open remarks by this NATO official come amid heightened caution in Europe over possible Russian sabotage and military provocations. According to the Associated Press, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Western authorities have identified at least 211 cases of sabotage and hostile activities attributed to Russia. For instance, on the 29th of last month, the Estonian government announced that a fire at a domestic defense company, Milrem Robotics, in August was an arson incident directed by Russian security agencies. Milrem Robotics supplies unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) to Ukraine.
In Germany, attempts to attack Ukraine’s military supply chains were identified. According to Reuters, the German government officially accused Russia of being behind drones equipped with explosives found in August at Leipzig-Halle airport. Airport staff discovered drones armed with explosives and detonation devices; the targets were believed to be Ukrainian cargo planes parked at the airport. In the UK, a simulated sabotage incident targeting defense facilities also surfaced. Last month, British prosecutors indicted 31-year-old Joshua Cammidge for conspiring with Russian contacts to attack domestic drone manufacturing sites. Prosecutors said the defendant communicated with someone suspected of being linked to a group controlled by Russia’s military intelligence agency (GRU) and provided information on four drone manufacturing facilities west of London in Swindon.
Possibility of limited military attacks raised
Direct Russian military activities are also factors intensifying European security concerns. For example, in September last year, Polish and NATO forces undertook urgent responses against about 20 Russian drones that entered Polish airspace. Poland scrambled F-16 fighters, joined by Dutch F-35s, Italian AWACS aircraft, and NATO air refueling planes, and managed to shoot down some drones. Later that same month, three Russian fighter jets violated Estonian airspace. The Estonian government requested security consultations among allies under Article 4 of the NATO founding treaty, and NATO condemned Russia’s airspace violation, warning that it would employ necessary military and non-military means to counter further threats. Since then, unidentified drones have repeatedly caused civilian airport operation suspensions across Europe.
Amid this, there is growing concern within the region that Russia may carry out limited military attacks against NATO member states in the future. On the 17th of last month, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, citing intelligence assessments, warned that Russia is planning drone and missile attacks targeting European countries supporting Ukraine, and may disguise such attacks as accidental incidents to weaken NATO members’ will to activate collective defense measures. Danish intelligence agencies also assessed in the same month that Russia is likely to expand hybrid operations combining sabotage, cyberattacks, and misinformation campaigns to pressure Western countries.
Table 1. Russia-originated security threats in Europe
| Category | Major situations |
|---|---|
| Sabotage and hybrid attacks | Repeated detection of attack attempts targeting defense industry sites and Ukraine’s military supply chains; possibilities of expanded cyberattacks and disinformation dissemination |
| Military provocations | Russian drones and fighter jets violating NATO member countries’ airspace, raising the level of military responses |
| Conflict risk areas | Tensions intensify between Russia and NATO around Kaliningrad and the three Baltic states |
‘Alert posture’ in conflict risk areas
If military conflict between Russia and NATO materializes, Russia’s exclave Kaliningrad is expected to emerge as a key conflict zone. Kaliningrad is a strategic military hub located between NATO member states Poland and Lithuania, and hosts the Russian Baltic Fleet headquarters along with concentrated missile and air defense forces. Actual military warning levels around Kaliningrad continue to rise day by day. In May, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gintautas Budrys asserted in an interview with Swiss daily Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ), ‘NATO needs to demonstrate that it can break through the Russian military defense network established in Kaliningrad.’ In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared, ‘Russia possesses all the means to destroy forces attempting to attack Kaliningrad.’ Last month, a diplomatic document delivered by Russia to NATO included a warning that ‘the West is prepared to use all military means, including nuclear weapons, should efforts be made to isolate Kaliningrad from Russian mainland.’
In Latvia, which shares a border with Russia, vigilance over possible military clashes is also deepening. In May, President Putin warned regarding claims by Russian intelligence that Ukraine had deployed drone operators on Latvian soil, saying, ‘Any place that poses a direct military threat to Russia can be legitimately targeted.’ Subsequently, in July, Latvian President Egils Levits expressed concerns, stating, ‘NATO member intelligence agencies, including those of Lithuania and Latvia, have detected Russian sabotage attempts,’ and added, ‘If Russia fails to achieve success on the Ukraine front, it may test NATO’s collective defense resolve through sabotage and hybrid attacks.’
Europe accelerates rearmament
As military threats originating from Russia intensify, Europe is also speeding up efforts to strengthen regional defense measures. According to Reuters, NATO is conducting its annual nuclear deterrence exercise, ‘Steadfast Noon,’ beginning on the 13th in Italy. Seventeen member countries participate, conducting nuclear weapon operation procedures and command and control system checks among allies without employing actual nuclear weapons. The overall trend toward increasing defense budgets is also prominent. NATO member states agreed at last year’s Hague summit to increase defense and security-related spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Specifically, at least 3.5% of GDP is to be allocated for core defense needs, including personnel, weapons, and military facilities, while up to 1.5% of GDP will be spent on protecting critical infrastructure, cybersecurity, and strengthening the defense industrial base.
Efforts to enhance joint European defense capabilities are also continuing. On the 28th of last month, the EU Council officially approved five European joint defense projects in areas including drone and anti-drone systems, maritime and underwater defense, space security, integrated air and missile defense, and eastern front defense. These projects were proposed by the European Commission last July, and with this approval, they qualify for financial support through the European Defence Industrial Programme (EDIP). Earlier, in March, the Commission finalized an EDIP plan totaling 1.5 billion euros (approximately US$1.73 billion), allocating 325 million euros (around US$375 million) of this budget to support the launch and promotion of European joint defense projects.
