Original Coverage & Source Attribution: www.timesfreepress.com
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its monthly employment situation report last week, and it was a doozy. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 165,000 jobs in October, thanks in no small measure to investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure. The numbers blew away the consensus estimate of 65,000 jobs and more than trebled the 48,000 monthly average over the preceding 12 months. No one saw it coming, and it likely raised the odds for a December rate hike when the Federal Reserve meets again in December.
In addition to the blowout growth in October, the Labor Department revised the August and September employment numbers upward by a total of 84,000. The unemployment rate, already hovering at near-record lows, fell again to from 4.2% to 4.1% — on the surface, a near Goldilocks scenario. Digging a little deeper, the numbers confirm previous characterizations of a “low-hire, low-fire” labor market, with companies hanging on to their employees but job seekers encountering more difficulty finding employment.
The job growth was led by a 70,000 gain in professional and business services. That category includes knowledge workers in scientific and technical occupations as well as management and administrative positions. Health care was also a major contributor with 42,000 positions added in October. That has been a consistent pattern, with health care accounting for 3 out of every 4 of all the new jobs created over the past 12 months.
Another bright spot was manufacturing, adding 19,000 jobs. Production employment declined steadily throughout 2025 due to several factors, including tariffs and trade uncertainty. However, manufacturing employment has rebounded this year, again in large part due to demand from the AI infrastructure expansion. Around 70% of private capital investment so far this year has been AI-related, increasing demand for computer and electronic components, machinery, and metal products. We don’t yet know if AI will kill us all, but it has been undeniably great for American manufacturing.
The report was positive but also hinted at some areas of concern. Despite the stable employment rate and robust jobs growth, a significant swath of the workforce is still struggling to join the party. The jobless rate includes 7 million workers who are actively looking for work and are considered unemployed. However, the tally encompasses an additional 6 million people not in the labor force who currently want a job. These potential workers are not counted as unemployed because they have not actively sought a job in the past four weeks. Furthermore, the average duration of unemployment rose to 27 weeks, the highest in over a decade outside of the brief pandemic disruption. Two million of those are considered “long-term unemployed,” out of work for more than 27 weeks, the highest share since 2021.
OUT OF FREE ARTICLES
You’ve used your free articles
You’ve read all of your free articles for now. Subscribe for unlimited access to every story.
