Original Coverage & Source Attribution: www.goldderby.com
Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey has navigated to nearly $1.8 billion worldwide and sits atop Gold Derby’s Best Picture odds. It’s also on track to be the highest-grossing film in this year’s race. History says that last part could be a problem. The top domestic grosser among the Best Picture nominees hasn’t won since Slumdog Millionaire in 2009.
Nolan had an accidental hand in starting that streak. Slumdog was the top-grossing nominee that year only because The Dark Knight, Nolan’s Batman sequel, was snubbed. The Academy responded by expanding Best Picture to 10 nominees the following year, opening the door for crowd-pleasers. Avatar, then the highest-grossing film of all time, landed a nomination. It lost to The Hurt Locker, which earned just $17 million domestic.
That pattern has held ever since. Top Gun: Maverick ($721.9 million domestic) and Avatar: The Way of Water ($688.5 million) both lost to Everything Everywhere All at Once ($77.2 million). Two years later, Wicked ($474.9 million) and Dune: Part Two ($282.1 million) fell to Anora ($20.5 million). And last year, Sinners ($280 million) and F1 ($189.7 million) both lost to One Battle After Another ($72.9 million).
Nolan has come closest to cracking the code. Fifteen years after The Dark Knight’s snub, he won Best Picture for Oppenheimer, which grossed nearly $1 billion worldwide. It’s the only winner of the past decade to cross $100 million domestic. Before Oppenheimer, no winner had done it since Argo in 2013. But even Oppenheimer wasn’t the biggest hit in its race. That was Barbie.
The rest of the decade’s winners were modest earners at best. Green Book came closest at $85.1 million domestic. Moonlight took in just $28.2 million, and pandemic-era Nomadland made less than $4 million. The lesson: box office can help a film get nominated, but it doesn’t create a front-runner.
Below are the top 15 contenders in Gold Derby’s Best Picture odds for the 2027 Oscars, ranked by box office. Domestic and worldwide totals are listed for each. Films that haven’t opened yet sit at the bottom and will be slotted in once their numbers arrive. Gold Derby will keep updating this list as the grosses roll in and the odds shift, right up until the 99th Academy Awards on March 14.
(Updated Oct. 28)
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The Odyssey
Image Credit: Universal Pictures Domestic: $625.5 million
Worldwide: $1.8 billion
Release date: July 17
Distributor: Universal Pictures
Director: Christopher Nolan -
Project Hail Mary
Image Credit: Amazon MGM Studios Domestic: $344 million
Worldwide: $684.4 million
Release date: March 20
Distributor: Amazon MGM Studios
Director: Phil Lord and Christopher Miller -
Obsession
Image Credit: Focus Features Domestic: $263.4 million
Worldwide: $523.5 million
Release date: May 15
Distributor: Focus Features
Director: Curry Barker -
The Invite
Image Credit: A24 Domestic: $26.1 million
Worldwide: $62 million
Release date: June 26
Distributor: A24
Director: Olivia Wilde -
You Can See Everything
Image Credit: A24 Domestic: $45.1 million
Worldwide: $45.1 million
Release date: Oct. 16
Distributor: A24
Director: Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim -
La Bola Negra
Image Credit: Netflix Domestic: $689,235
Worldwide: $34.5 million
Release date: Oct. 16
Distributor: Netflix
Director: Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo -
Fjord
Image Credit: Neon Domestic: $685,563
Worldwide: $1.4 million
Release date: Oct. 9
Distributor: Neon
Director: Cristian Mungiu -
Wild Horse Nine
Image Credit: Searchlight Pictures Domestic: TBD
Worldwide: TBD
Release date: Nov. 6
Distributor: Searchlight Pictures
Director: Martin McDonagh -
Being Heumann
Image Credit: Apple Original Films Domestic: TBD
Worldwide: TBD
Release date: Nov. 6
Distributor: Apple Original Films
Director: Sian Heder -
I Play Rocky
Image Credit: Amazon MGM Domestic: TBD
Worldwide: TBD
Release date: Nov. 13
Distributor: Amazon MGM Studios
Director: Peter Farrelly -
Elsinore
Image Credit: Focus Features Domestic: TBD
Worldwide: TBD
Release date: Nov. 20
Distributor: Focus Features
Director: Simon Stone -
All of a Sudden
Image Credit: Neon Domestic: TBD
Worldwide: TBD
Release date: Nov. 25
Distributor: Neon
Director: Ryūsuke Hamaguchi -
The Debut
Image Credit: A24 Domestic: TBD
Worldwide: TBD
Release date: Dec. 11
Distributor: A24
Director: Jesse Eisenberg -
Dune: Part Three
Image Credit: Warner Bros. Pictures Domestic: TBD
Worldwide: TBD
Release date: Dec. 18
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Director: Denis Villeneuve -
Artificial
Image Credit: Neon Domestic: TBD
Worldwide: TBD
Release date: Dec. 25
Distributor: Neon
Director: Luca Guadagnino
