Original Coverage & Source Attribution: defence24.com
On Monday, 2 November, an extensive publication appeared in „Politico”, in which analysts comment on the future of American policy in the context of the upcoming elections. Worst-case scenarios are being considered.
The US and European security
The approaching midterm elections in the United States provide an opportunity for numerous commentators to consider their impact on Donald Trump’s policy. On Monday, 2 November, an extensive publication appeared in „Politico”, in which numerous analysts weigh the potential outcomes of the future.
Experts agree that a Republican defeat in the elections could significantly influence the perception of foreign policy by Donald Trump’s administration. They claim that if the US President’s influence on domestic policy is restricted, he will attempt to assert his position on the international stage as Commander-in-Chief – and this will have a significant impact on European security.
Oana Lungescu, a former NATO spokesperson and expert at the RUSI think tank, believes that a rapprochement between Trump and Putin cannot be ruled out, and along with this, a series of related events – the withdrawal of more US troops from Europe, blocking support for Ukraine (primarily by limiting the US financial contribution to the PURL weapons procurement programme), or reducing the United States’ commitment to common NATO policy.
„There is a risk that all these issues – the review of US force posture, Ukraine, the European security order… will somehow be treated as part of a much larger deal with Putin, which will create a very dangerous situation for security in Europe,” says Oana Lungescu.
Will Trump withdraw from NATO?
A somewhat exotic concept, yet one that must be considered, is the potential departure of the United States from NATO. Such visions are entertained by the Montenegrin Defence Minister, Dragan Krapović: „There is constant speculation that Trump… will withdraw from NATO. So far, this has not happened..”
Should such a situation arise, Europe would find itself in an extremely difficult position, requiring an urgent reappraisal of priorities – both in domestic and foreign policy. However, the politician himself does not believe that Trump will decide on such a radical step, noting that Congress would also have a say in the matter.
Analysts further note that Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to weaken NATO in various ways, but ultimately, nothing of the sort has occurred. It remains to be seen what the outcome of the US elections will be, and to listen carefully to the American leader’s subsequent declarations.
